Climate change and regional instability in central america

With more than 1.7 million encounters reported by U.S. Customs and Border Protection—the highest tally in two decades—2021 was an exceptional year for irregular migration to the U.S.

southern border. Although that number includes citizens from at least 121 countries, some 43 percent of those apprehended by U.S. authorities hailed from Central America. Paul J. Angelo

Director of the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University For more than a decade, migration from Mexico’s southern neighbors was on the rise,

but the COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic recession triggered unprecedented levels of cross-border flow, prompting the Joe Biden administration to prioritize U.S. programs aimed at

addressing the socioeconomic, political, and security drivers of migration. In the process, the Biden administration refocused the U.S. government’s efforts to factor climate change risks as

catalysts for regional displacement. Indeed, the effects of climate change on migration could no longer be ignored after back-to-back category 4 and category 5 hurricanes, Eta and Iota,

pummeled the Caribbean coast of Central America in November 2020. The ruin left by the two cyclones gave rise to a new period of climate-induced instability in Central America. More on:

Central America Climate Change Immigration and Migration El Salvador Guatemala In addition to extreme weather events, irregular precipitation patterns, deforestation, and high temperatures

increasingly contribute to upended livelihoods and rampant food insecurity. From 2018 to 2021, the number of people going hungry in Central America nearly quadrupled, topping out at close to

eight million. A 2017 study ranked Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua among the ten countries in the world most vulnerable to climate-based risks, with those living along the Pacific Coast

in the region’s Dry Corridor especially susceptible. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, a leading research program that ranks countries by their preparedness for addressing climate

vulnerability, listed the countries of Central America among the worst performers in the world due to the magnitude of challenges and the incapacity of regional governments to respond, with

Honduras taking the group’s lowest position at 139 out of 182 countries assessed. Despite contributing less than 0.2 percent of global carbon emissions, the low-income countries of Central

America shoulder a disproportionate environmental burden imposed by the world’s most prosperous and carbon-emitting countries. PREVENTIVE ACTION UPDATE A snapshot of global hot spots along

with expert analysis on ways to prevent and mitigate deadly conflict from the Center for Preventive Action. _Quarterly._ THANK YOU FOR SIGNING UP. You can also sign up to receive our other

newsletters: View All Newsletters Barring massive shifts in policy and human behavior around the world, environmental degradation due to climate change will fuel volatility in Central

America for decades to come, with disruptive spillover effects for neighboring Mexico and the United States. Halting the flow of people northward from Central America is neither feasible nor

desirable, especially given growing labor demands in the United States and Mexico. But ensuring migration remains an option, not a necessity, requires long-range planning and international

cooperation to alleviate the impending climate fallout. _This Discussion Paper was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed

are solely the responsibility of the author._ _PROFESSORS: __To request an exam copy, contact __[email protected]__. Please include your university and course name._ More on: Central

America Climate Change Immigration and Migration El Salvador Guatemala