Spring is coming in europe. When will britain emerge from lockdown? | thearticle

Across Europe, spring is here. Little by little, life is returning to a continent that has been in suspended animation since the pandemic struck. Austria, Czechia and Denmark are emerging

from hibernation this week, while Germany will join the great awakening on Monday.   One should not exaggerate the initial impact of this gradual return on the European economy. Danish

kindergartens, Austrian garden centres and Czech farmers’ markets are unlikely to herald a rapid return to normality. But these smaller nations are blazing a trail for the larger ones, which

are watching their exit strategies closely. Germany, the engine of the EU, is tiptoeing back to work next week, led by_ _small shops and businesses. The German _Mittelstand, _the

middle-sized firms that have always been the country ’ s mainstay, made their case to Chancellor Merkel at this week’s meeting of the 16 regional heads of government. In the Federal

Republic, the _Länder_, or states, have a powerful voice and in this case it has proved decisive in overcoming Angela Merkel’s instinctive caution. As a former chemist, she has followed the

scientific advice strictly, fearing that hospitals could be overwhelmed. But that has not happened. Instead, the German response to Covid-19, based on mass testing, has been a “fragile and

provisional success”, she told the nation — “something that was in no way a certainty at first”. Some schools and larger shops are due to return to work on May 4, along with churches,

restaurants, clubs and pubs. What can Britain learn from Germany and its neighbours in the heart of Europe? Here, the Government is extending the lockdown for another three weeks, with no

end in sight. But Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, is now convinced that the coronavirus curve is beginning to “flatten out”. This view was supported by Dame Angela McLean,

another senior scientific adviser, who points out that the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital is no longer increasing nationally and in London is actually falling. If, as appears to be

the case, there is a scientific consensus that the peak has now been reached, then the politicians and civil servants have no time to waste in preparing to put the UK’s exit strategy into

action early next month. But what should that strategy be? Here there is no consensus. Some — the “hawks” — favour an early exit from lockdown, fearing that each day’s delay will make it

harder to resuscitate the moribund economy. Others — “the doves” — are worried that a premature return to business as usual in spring will bring a second wave of the pandemic in its wake to

sweep the country in the summer. A compromise, said to be in preparation, is based on the concept of “segmenting”. Under this scheme, healthy younger adults would return to work and gain

immunity; older adults would remain in lockdown for much longer; and the 1.5 million most at risk would be shielded, even if that meant self-isolation from close family members. A second

difference of opinion cuts across that which divides the hawks and doves: should the staged return to normality be organised on the basis of age, geography or economic function? Here again

there is no consensus. There is broad agreement among experts that nurseries, schools and universities should be among the first to be unlocked, both because the loss of education does

irreparable damage to the young and because their parents would then be free to return to work. The virological analysis suggests that 2-4 per cent of deaths have been prevented by the

closure of the education and childcare system — a low enough figure, perhaps, to risk their reopening. In Denmark, primary school pupils are observing strict social distancing in the

classroom. But if young adults, who are also low-risk, are released from lockdown, how can they be persuaded to play by the rules in their interactions with older generations who remain

vulnerable to infection? In an article for the_ Times, _Sir Iain Duncan Smith and the economist Gerard Lyons argue that age should not be the decisive factor in sequencing the recovery. They

are sceptical that young adults could kick start the economy on their own. Instead, they favour a “traffic light approach”, with red, amber and green phases. In each phase, lasting three

weeks, more economic activities would be permitted: red would begin in the first week of May and the green phase in mid-June. By then, pubs, restaurants and large shops would be open, while

larger gatherings, such as religious services and sports events, would be allowed to take place. Over the next few days, the Cabinet will have to choose between these various options. The

lack of light at the end of the tunnel is sapping national morale. As one influential adviser, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, puts it: “Decisions must be accelerated and real

progress made.” For that to happen, we need leadership. Only the Prime Minister can provide the necessary authority to choose an exit strategy and stick to it through the inevitable setbacks

and criticisms. Boris Johnson is still convalescing at Chequers, but he is undoubtedly being kept informed and will return as soon as he is fighting fit — perhaps as soon as this weekend,

which may well mark the turning point in the pandemic. In September 1939, after Britain declared war on Germany, Neville Chamberlain took the courageous decision to appoint his nemesis,

Winston Churchill, to lead the Royal Navy as First Lord of the Admiralty, the position he had held in 1914. A signal was sent to the entire fleet, then still the largest in the world:

“Winston is back.” Today, after a month of record mortality and economic stasis, the signal this plague-ridden country needs to hear must also come from Downing Street: “Boris is back.”