Heroism abroad, upheaval at home: how to build a new national consensus | thearticle

The battle for Ukraine is not only revolutionising Russia, which is visibly morphing from an authoritarian into a totalitarian dictatorship, but has already electrified politics in Western

Europe. The French election now looks a foregone conclusion, given that two of Macron’s Right-wing rivals are hopelessly compromised by their associations with Putin. In Germany, the Social

Democrat-led coalition has dumped Angela Merkel’s discredited version of _Ostpolitik _and Chancellor Scholz is building a new consensus around rebuilding the country’s dilapidated defences.

NATO and the EU have found a new sense of purpose, with rows over the rule of law now shelved to help Poland and Hungary cope with millions of refugees. Meanwhile, here in Britain the

political landscape is unrecognisable from that of few weeks ago. Not only is Boris Johnson in his element, looking and sounding like a war leader, but the focus of debate has shifted onto

ground that is largely unfamiliar to the political class. Westminster-based journalists have been left floundering as a story that they ignored throughout the autumn and winter has knocked

all their assumptions into a cocked hat.   The Government has, however, failed to highlight key facts: that Britain has been arming and training Ukrainian troops since 2015; that the Prime

Minister, Foreign and Defence Secretaries were ahead of their European and American counterparts in warning about an impending war; that the UK is seen in Ukraine as a staunch ally and in

the Kremlin as a dangerous foe. Unlike most other NATO countries, who are offering the Ukrainians old Soviet-era weaponry, the British have been quietly supplying them with Javelin anti-tank

missiles and other modern kit; only Turkish Bayraktar drones have had a comparable impact on the battlefield. The debate about a no-fly zone is a distraction: as the admirable Admiral

Radakin points out, the main threat to civilians comes from artillery, not air strikes. It is a pity that the Chief of the Defence Staff misuses the word “decimated” to describe the carnage

inflicted on Putin’s invaders, but British intelligence assessments evidently match Kyiv’s claims that Russian losses now exceed 11,500 dead.   The failure to communicate these facts in a

more salient manner is less important than the mistakes that have been made in other policy areas. The Home Office has, as usual, been flat-footed in responding to a refugee crisis that has

admittedly mushroomed with terrifying speed. It is not entirely fair to blame Priti Patel, who is hampered by the inflexible mindset of her departmental bureaucracy, but the pitiful figure

of 50 visas issued at Calais over the weekend shows Home Secretary is badly out of step with public opinion in dealing with the emergency. There are signs that she understands this: she has

told _The Sun_ that her legal team is working on a “humanitarian route”. The new policy should mean that “ anyone without ties to the UK fleeing the conflict in Ukraine would have a right to

come to this nation”. There is little danger of Britain being overwhelmed with refugees: the 15,000 Ukrainians who have applied for visas so far are only about one per cent of the total

exodus; the UK could easily accommodate ten times as many. Were these Ukrainians to remain permanently, they would soon become an asset: the post-Brexit economy is actually short of skilled

and semi-skilled labour.   A bigger challenge is posed by the now unanswerable need to reverse decades of relative decline in defence spending. While the armed forces have done a good job of

preserving their capabilities with ever-shrinking numbers, the minimum necessary to maintain a significant global role was reached long ago. Under the last defence review, the combined

Services are still due to be reduced by another 10,000 men. This is unsustainable in a security environment where major European wars are once again a reality.   Ben Wallace may occasionally

have overstepped the mark with his language (Putin “going full Tonto”, for example), but he has offered strong leadership in a crisis and is now clearly the most influential figure in the

Cabinet. With Germany increasing its defence budget by €100 billion (£82 billion), the Treasury is going to have to rethink its priorities. At least the pandemic is receding, not merely in

the death toll but also in public consciousness: most people have now moved on. The Government no longer needs to waste its energies on damage limitation over possible breaches of Covid

regulations. Instead, ministers must now focus on the biggest shakeup of the British state since the 1980s. A new national consensus must be created, with the emphasis on strong defence

based on cutting-edge science and technology. Entire new industries will need to be created in the North and on the Celtic periphery, turning levelling up into more than just a slogan and

restoring Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to their rightful place at the heart of the defence community. The scientific potential unleashed during the pandemic must now be extended to

fulfill the need to protect Britain not only against lethal viruses but also the threat of hostile aggressors. The Labour Party has an important role to play in building this new consensus.

There are signs that Sir Keir Starmer is shifting his attention from _ad hominem _attacks on Boris Johnson towards rediscovering lost Labour traditions of patriotism. He has already cited

Ernest Bevin; he might also recall other Cold War warriors of the Left, such as Hugh Gaitskill and Denis Healey. Above all, he should heal the rift with New Labour, a generation of

centre-Left politicians who understood the exigencies of national security and could teach their successors how to set about making Labour once again the party of defence. Her Majesty’s

loyal Opposition has some way to go before the public will trust it again after the Corbyn era, but Sir Keir’s heart is in the right place. This war will test his mettle too.   Ukraine has

already upended British politics and will continue to do so. Sanctions have already broken with the legacy of corruption bequeathed by the Russian oligarchy, but there is a long way to go

there too, not least for the present Conservative leadership. The Augean stables were pristine compared to Londonograd and the Prime Minister should be frank with the country about the scale

of the clean-up required, not least in his own party. Building the new national consensus will require a broadening of the Government to include more military and bipartisan expertise.

Penny Mordaunt should be brought back into Cabinet, which would also be strengthened by Kemi Badenoch’s long overdue promotion. The Prime Minister should be consulting elder statesmen such

as Sir Tony Blair, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Lord Robertson, Lord Hutton, Lord Howell and others, plus the likes of Sir Richard Dearlove, Sir John Scarlett, Sir Mike Jackson, Lord Dannatt, Sir

Lawrence Freedman, Patrick Heren and other experts who have deep experience and knowledge of defence, security, energy and war. This is a time for unity, resolution and strength. History is

being made on the Dnieper and the Pripyat, on the streets of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol. Britain, which has helped to make possible these extraordinary acts of heroism abroad, cannot now

flag or fail in meeting the demands of the day at home. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to

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