Socio-hydrological features of armed conflicts in the lake chad basin

ABSTRACT The role of water resources in conflict has been the centre of a polarized scientific debate on the connections between environmental and social sustainability. We investigate

whether and how water availability, also in relation to water demand, increases the likelihood of violent conflict, and we analyse how hydrological factors influence social conflict dynamics

involving non-state armed groups in the Lake Chad Basin. We combine hydrological and biophysical factors with information on socio-political processes. We use a novel physically based

agro-hydrological model to produce water-availability and water-demand indicators to explore the conflict potential. By coupling a critical modelling perspective with a novel rendition of

hydrological dynamics and statistical tools, we explore water–conflict interconnections in a broader hydrosocial framework. Our results show that, although water scarcity alone does not

directly drive violent conflict, complex water-related interdependencies exist on multiple space–time scales. Analytical integration of fine-scale hydrological indicators may help

deconstruct both mechanistic and relativist narratives, improve understanding of socio-hydrological complexity and move towards a comprehensive vision of socially and environmentally

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support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS EXPLORING THE WATER–FOOD NEXUS REVEALS THE INTERLINKAGES WITH URBAN HUMAN CONFLICTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA Article 06 April 2023 DIAGNOSING

CHALLENGES AND SETTING PRIORITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Article Open access 17 January 2022 OVER-RELIANCE ON WATER INFRASTRUCTURE CAN HINDER CLIMATE

RESILIENCE IN PASTORAL DRYLANDS Article Open access 16 February 2024 DATA AVAILABILITY All data inputs to the analysis in this study were retrieved from publicly available sources that are

cited within the text. Results that are additional to those provided in the text and in the supplementary materials are available from the authors upon reasonable request. CODE AVAILABILITY

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acknowledge support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action (MSCA) Innovative Training Network (ITN) grant agreement

no. 861509 – NEWAVE. M.C.R. and N.G. are supported by ENI Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), Cariplo Foundation (SusFeed project 0737 CUP D49H170000300007) and Regione Lombardia (RUD0CONV01 /

ASSO project D44I20002000002). M.C.R., N.G. and D.D.C. are supported by the European Commission’s PRIMA joint programme, under project ‘NEXUS-NESS’ (CUP D49J21005050006). AUTHOR INFORMATION

AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy Nikolas Galli, Davide Danilo Chiarelli & Maria Cristina Rulli *

Department of Environmental Policy Analysis, Institute for Environmental Studies, IVM, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Jampel Dell’Angelo * Department of

Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy Ilenia Epifani Authors * Nikolas Galli View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Jampel

Dell’Angelo View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Ilenia Epifani View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google

Scholar * Davide Danilo Chiarelli View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Maria Cristina Rulli View author publications You can also search

for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS M.C.R., N.G. and J.D. designed research. I.E., N.G. and D.D.C. performed the analysis. M.C.R., N.G. and J.D. wrote the article. I.E. and

D.D.C. conducted review and editing. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Maria Cristina Rulli. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing interests. PEER

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INFORMATION Supplementary Methods, Results and Figs. 1–3. SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES Spatial econometric model covariates descriptive statistics, spatial econometric model covariate effects,

Mann–Whitney tests outcomes. SUPPLEMENTARY DATA Spatial econometric model database, in shapefile format. Acronyms are described in the file metadata. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and

permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Galli, N., Dell’Angelo, J., Epifani, I. _et al._ Socio-hydrological features of armed conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin. _Nat Sustain_ 5,

843–852 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00936-2 Download citation * Received: 29 April 2021 * Accepted: 21 June 2022 * Published: 28 July 2022 * Issue Date: October 2022 * DOI:

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