Epidemiological analysis of association between lagged meteorological variables and pneumonia in wet-dry tropical north australia, 2006–2016

ABSTRACT Pneumonia accounts for 1.5% of all overnight hospital admission in Australia. We investigated the nonlinear and delay effect of weather (temperature and rainfall) on pneumonia. This

study was based on a large cohort of inpatients that were hospitalized due to pneumonia between 2006 and 2016. Cases were identified using the International Statistical Classification of

Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, Australian Modification (ICD10-AM) codes J10.0*–J18.0*. A time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the burden

of the disease attributable to varying weather-lag pneumonia relationships and identify vulnerable groups. The relative risk (presented as logRR) associated with temperature was immediate

and highest in late winter at the lowest temperature of 16 °C (logRR = 1.13, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.59, 1.66). The cumulative effect over the lag range 0–8 weeks revealed two peaks

for low (12 mm, logRR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.32, 1.13) and moderately high rainfall (51 mm) with logRR of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.10, 2.20). A substantial number, 22.50% (95% empirical CI: 1.83, 34.68),

of pneumonia cases were attributable to temperature (mostly due to moderate low temperatures). Females and indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander) patients were particularly

vulnerable to the impact of temperature-related pneumonia. In this study, we highlighted the delayed effects and magnitude of burden of pneumonia that is associated with low temperature and

rainfall. The findings in this study can inform a better understanding of the health implications and burden associated with pneumonia to support discussion-making in healthcare and

establish a strategy for prevention and control of the disease among vulnerable groups. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via

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Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by a financial grant from the Townsville Hospital and Health Service Study Education Research Trust Account. AUTHOR INFORMATION

AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Discovery Drive, Douglas, QLD, 4814, Australia Oyelola A. Adegboye, Emma S. McBryde 

& Damon P. Eisen * Townsville Hospital and Health Service, Angus Smith Drive, Douglas, QLD, 4814, Australia Damon P. Eisen Authors * Oyelola A. Adegboye View author publications You can

also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Emma S. McBryde View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Damon P. Eisen View author

publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Oyelola A. Adegboye. ETHICS DECLARATIONS CONFLICT OF INTEREST The authors

declare that they have no conflict of interest. ETHICS Ethical approval was obtained from the Townsville Hospital and Health Service Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/16/QTHS/221) and

the Queensland Public Health Act (RD007802) for the data linkage project. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in

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O.A., McBryde, E.S. & Eisen, D.P. Epidemiological analysis of association between lagged meteorological variables and pneumonia in wet-dry tropical North Australia, 2006–2016. _J Expo

Sci Environ Epidemiol_ 30, 448–458 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-019-0176-8 Download citation * Received: 15 April 2019 * Revised: 22 July 2019 * Accepted: 15 August 2019 *

Published: 07 October 2019 * Issue Date: May 2020 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-019-0176-8 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this

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KEYWORDS * Wet-dry tropics * Pneumonia * Lagged variables * Temperature * Rainfall