Xi and putin: the sino-russian riddle | thearticle

The war in Ukraine is one month old. Vladimir Putin’s blitzkrieg is not going well despite the horrendous loss of civilian life. We can expect a grim ratcheting up in the coming weeks. Putin

has turned to China, Russia’s old Communist rival turned ally, for help. Born less than a year apart (1952 and 1953 respectively) Putin and Xi Jinping see eye to eye on many things.

Foremost among these is a desire to hold on to power. They are both emperors. This is closely followed by opposition to US hegemony. For both leaders the end of the Cold War and the collapse

of the Soviet Union were seminal events that shaped their world view. For Putin the aim is to reverse history. For Xi the aim is to prevent history repeating itself. So how will Xi respond?

The answer could prove crucial to how this war ends. As western sanctions choke the Russian economy, China could throw Putin a lifeline by soaking up the oil, metals and grain that Russia

cannot sell elsewhere, as well offering financial help. At the height of the Trump presidency Harold Ford, a former Democrat Congressman, wisecracked that while China thinks in 100-year

increments, America’s yardstick is 140 characters. This a neat but flawed aphorism. Beneath its monolithic appearance China is a good deal nimbler than the West gives it credit for, as its

advances in artificial intelligence and new military technology suggest. What is true is that, more than virtually any modern nation, China takes the long view: whom to side with, whom to

hold at arms length, whom to confront. As a totalitarian state, without the inconvenience of proper elections, it can afford to. To China national interest and the supremacy of the Communist

Party are indistinguishable, two sides of the same coin. But there is a catch: in order to achieve this degree of control the regime must keep growing its economy, pulling its citizens out

of poverty. It is the bargain between people and state. Hence its bind over Ukraine. None of the choices on offer are palatable. Xi’s instincts may be to back Putin to the hilt. But as the

world’s factory, China is vulnerable. On the one hand Xi can see that Putin’s gamble in Ukraine is destabilising to a world economy on which it is heavily dependant. China’s trade, and

therefore jobs, is appreciably skewed towards the West. The US and Europe consume about 30 per cent of China’s exports. Even if the terms of trade are hugely in China’s favour (America and

the EU import nearly three times as much as they export to China), putting this nexus at risk by siding with Russia completely makes little economic sense, especially if Putin loses. China

is no less vulnerable to soaring world prices than the West. It, too, will want to avoid another recession just as it bounces back from the pandemic. It will also wish to protect its

strategic Belt and Road initiatives, Xi’s signature project for projecting Chinese power. Like the US-led post-war Marshall Plan, Xi sees this linking of key economic hubs around the globe

as a bridgehead to a China-dominated future. China’s western frontiers and its central Asian neighbours — including Xinjiang, home to the Muslim Uighurs — hold vast reserves of oil and gas.

These are lifelines that China must preserve, not least to keep its economy growing. On the other hand, China has been building a strategic relationship with Putin (as it has with other

anti-western states such as Iran) as part of its plan to overtake the US as the world’s number one power. In a move which would have been unthinkable not long ago, China is exploring closer

links with its vast neighbour India, with whom it fought a war across the Himalayas in 1962. Despite continuing tensions and occasional clashes along the disputed border, China is India’s

second largest trading partner. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has refused to condemn Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. A politically non-aligned India, equidistant between China,

Russia and the West, poses a serious headache for the West. Xi, with an eye on Taiwan, will be carefully assessing the consequences of the Russian leader’s attempt to grab Ukraine. Putin’s

dream of a Greater Russia incorporating its Slavic neighbours is a mirror image of Beijing’s One-China policy. These are the ties that bind. In 1939, on the day when World War II was (also)

a month old, Winston Churchill famously referred to Russia as a “riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. Russia had just invaded Poland from the east, 17 days after Hitler’s panzer

divisions had rolled in from the west. This was an odd non-condemnation of Stalin’s action by the fiercely anti-Bolshevik Churchill. But Churchill, unlike most war leaders, could see round

corners. He understood that national interest, not short-term advantage, would dictate the course of the war. Russia’s pact with Nazi Germany would not last. He was right. Less than two

years later — to Stalin’s astonishment, but not Churchill’s — Hitler fatefully invaded the Soviet Union. China will support Putin or, like Churchill, not condemn him outright for as long as

he does not become a liability. Xi has to walk a tightrope, but he controls both ends. We are likely to see some help going Moscow’s way, but weighed carefully against its interests as a

titan of the world economy. China first and China last. None of which is good news for the US, the EU or Britain — all weakened by divisions, nationalism, Brexit and spectacular foreign

policy failures such as Iraq and Afghanistan over the past 30 years. The West is united in its determination to see Putin fail. The battle for Ukraine is framed as one between autocrats and

democrats. There is some truth in this. But the West’s influence is severely diminished, as the new world order rearranges itself around new alliances which we are struggling to keep up

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