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A non-American looking at the United States could be forgiven for thinking that the country was suffering from a paroxysm of utter madness. That’s what it feels like from inside as well.
Every time a new low point appears, it seems that things can’t get worse. But then they do; a new low, unimaginable before, comes on the scene. Where it ends is, as we used to say, the
$64,000 Question, except that much more than money is at stake. The fate of the First American Republic (or Second, if the Civil War counted as the end of the First) hangs in the balance.
Consider the latest: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas turns out to have taken literally hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts from wealthy conservative “friends”, all entirely
unreported. When calls for a code of ethics arose, the response of another Justice, Samuel Alito, was that Congress had no business messing with the Court. He said this despite the fact
that Congress appropriates funding for it, and could, if it chose, change its numbers or judicial writ. Congress is not to be outdone in this madness, but the competition within Congress
is intense. Republicans used to be thought of as strong on national security, but Senator Tommy Tuberville, who represents Alabama but lives in Florida, has put a hold on 300 nominees for
senior military posts. He has done this, supposedly, because the Pentagon gives its personnel time off to travel for medical care, including abortions, though it doesn’t pay for the
procedures. Poor House Speaker Kevin McCarthy continues to be counted among America’s hostages, in his case to a dozen members of the Freedom Caucus and others on the extreme right who will
try to depose him if doesn’t do their bidding. This means the call to impeach President Biden, this despite the absence of any hard evidence that he profited from his son’s trading on the
family name. (Even Hunter Biden’s trading pales by comparison to that of Trump’s children, though lesser avarice is not necessarily an excuse.) Still more serious, the MAGA maniacs seem
determined to shut the government down at the end of the month. They now reject the deal McCarthy and Biden struck not to increase federal spending. They now want big cuts, probably
including support for Ukraine and surely including staff in the Internal Revenue Service. Who knew that rich tax cheats were represented in Congress? For his part, Trump seems to wear each
new indictment as a badge of honor, or at least the occasion for more online posts in all capitals (and questionable grammar) about how he is a victim of the “deep state”. At least his
threat last month that the country would face “problems …the likes of which perhaps we’ve never seen” if he were indicted has not come to pass. Each time he’s gone to court to be processed,
the crowds have been small, more journalists than Trump partisans. Here, the latest is his last chief of staff, Mark Meadows, who essentially admitted in testimony that he had tried to
overturn the 2020 election result at Trump’s behest — but argued that doing so was part of his job description. Quite a job description! What next is anyone’s guess, for new lows surely will
appear. One thing seems certain, despite the hopes of many, including “Never-Trumper” Republicans: Trump will be the candidate against Biden. Given the pace of prosecutions and appeals,
definitive resolutions of the cases against Trump are unlikely before the presidential election in November 2024. Thus the election is likely to boil down to whether independents, those
suburban soccer moms, are appalled enough by indictments and abortion bans to give electoral victory to Biden. If not, then the path is clear. The MAGA maniacs only know what they don’t
want, and that is much of any federal government. If Biden wins the popular vote and the Electoral College – the two not being the same given the undemocratic structure of the latter – then
what? All bets will be off, including those about the fate of the American Republic, for who knows what new low Trump will stoop to in seeking to overturn the election results. _ Gregory
F. Treverton stepped down as Chair of the U.S. National Intelligence Council in January 2017. He is now Professor of the Practice at Dornsife College, University of Southern California,
chair of the Global TechnoPolitics Forum, and Executive Advisor to SMA Corporation. Karen Treverton is former special assistant to the president of RAND, and manager of the RAND Terrorism
Database. _