Whatever happens on 'super saturday', brexit will be causing problems for at least another decade | thearticle

Four years ago _Standpoint_ published my argument that Brexit would win the referendum promised for the following year. I argued: “What we do know from every referendum in Europe this

century is that polls showed constant support for the EU in general terms and support for the government line at the beginning of the referendum process, which melted away as the campaigning

took off. “This is connected to the second problem the pro-EU side faces. The challengers, the insurgents are seen to be those calling for a change in Britain’s relationship with Europe. In

the words of Daniel Johnson, editor of _Standpoint_, the referendum result ‘will ultimately turn not only on economic arguments about the costs and benefits of membership but on the

underlying question of sovereignty.’ “The In or Remain camp – to use the clumsy formula of that not over-bright quango, the Electoral Commission – will be seen as the establishment, the

London elites, members of that most despised institution, the House of Lords, and led by retired second division politicians from the main parties. “The challengers or insurgents will be

Tory politicians who are prepared to lose red boxes to fight for their principles, some of the most vivid writers in the press, left-wingers like Owen Jones, and even perhaps Jeremy Corbyn,

the ultimate insurgent. “The third problem is finance. When Margaret Thatcher was prime minister the government spent £25 million on a pro-single market public information campaign called

“Are EU ready?” It was corny but effective as TV adverts and posters on railway stations reminded everyone of the coming economic liberalisation. When I was Europe minister 15 years later my

budget to explain the EU to Britain was cut to £125,000 by Gordon Brown’s Treasury. “The Leave camp has bottomless sources of money and have funded the best Eurosceptic think tanks like

Open Europe or the impressive anti-EU Business for Britain run by the redoubtable Matthew Elliot. “The campaign has yet to unfold but unless the Remain camp can shake off establishment

complacency, be seen as inspiring, and find the hard cash to pay for organisers and communications then the possibilities of Brexit remain strong.” The argument was based on a book, _Brexit.

Why Britain Will Leave Leave Europe, _which I wrote as a warning in 2014 that a populist Brexit plebiscite would win. The book was ignored by the liberal pro-European establishment, BBC and

most papers. Now I have written a book _Brexiternity. The Uncertain Fate of Britain_ (published this week by IB Tauris-Bloomsbury) which is a warning that the reheated Theresa May proposals

advanced by Boris Johnson and which upset the DUP as they leave Northern Ireland partly under EU control are just a prologue to long, tetchy, bitter negotiations with both Brussels and

every special interest in 27 EU member states over the terms of Britain’s economic access to the continent and the rights of British citizens living, working or retired there. It little

matters if Johnson’s plans find support in the Commons, if an extension is needed, or if there is a general election . There will be a minimum of a decade in which Brexit messes up politics,

governance, Foreign Direct Investment decisions, the lives of British citizens in Europe, the research funding for our universities, and above all the unity of the United Kingdom. Far from

ending Brexit, this month is opening the door to a Brexiternity of problems.