What to watch out for in parliament tonight | thearticle

At long, long last, MPs are voting tonight on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. There will be two votes (nothing in this Parliament can ever be simple), one on the deal itself, and one – known as

a “programme motion” – on the three day timetable the Prime Minister has proposed to get through the bundle of legislation which would make the deal fly. For waverers, especially Labour

waverers, the programme motion is a fly in the ointment. To placate their Leave voting constituents, many of them would have been more than happy to vote for the deal in _theory, _but will

find it harder to stomach backing the truncated Tory timetable (especially with the Labour whips applying metaphorical thumb screws).  For Boris Johnson and his government, though, the

programme motion is crucial: if the Prime Minister can’t get the legislation through the Commons in the next three days, it will mean accepting a relatively lengthy Brexit extension –

something he has promised over and over again not to accept. He wants his deal to pass, but not on terms which might damage him in a general election.  That means the three possible outcomes

of tonight’s votes could set us on very different paths….  DEAL AND PROGRAMME PASS  This would be the first, unadulterated success story for Boris Johnson’s government. If both his deal and

the programme for the deal get through the House of Commons, the Prime Minister will truly have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Britain would leave the EU on 31 October, or very

shortly after (a technical extension might be deemed necessary) and Boris Johnson would go to the country as the man who made Brexit happen. Of course, it’s possible the electorate might

still reject him (Churchill was kicked out months after winning the war), but with a rejuvenated and newly-united Conservative Party campaigning hard, triumph seems more likely.  DEAL PASSES

BUT PROGRAMME DOESN’T  At the moment, this looks like the most likely scenario. And it’s probably the one the government is dreading most. If both the deal and the programme fail, the Prime

Minister will demand an immediate general election, and will reasonably be able to argue that Parliament has blocked Brexit. If the deal passes but the programme doesn’t, Boris Johnson will

have been thwarted – he has pinned his colours to the mast of a Halloween Brexit – but his message to the electorate won’t be quite as clear cut. He can (and will) try and claim that

Parliament has _materially _frustrated Brexit by wrecking his timetable, but he runs the risk of sounding like a child throwing his toys out of the pram: I want Brexit and I want it NOW! The

silver lining for Johnson if this scenario does indeed play out is that the EU might only give a short extension to allow the sort of Parliamentary scrutiny for which Labour MPs are

calling. We still wouldn’t be able to leave the EU on 31 October (meaning Johnson would lose face), but he may calculate that a bit late is better than never.  NEITHER DEAL NOR PROGRAMME

MOTION PASS  If this happens, expect a general election very soon indeed, and be prepared to hear the phrase “Parliament vs the People”. A. Lot.  PREDICTIONS  Guessing what will happen this

evening is a fool’s game. But I’ll play it anyway. The deal itself is looking set to pass with a slim majority.  As for the programme motion, most independent Conservative MPs look set to

back it – including Amber Rudd, Oliver Letwin and Richard Benyon – but around five look set to vote against. Meanwhile, the nine Labour rebels who supported the government on the Letwin

amendment look likely to back the programme motion, leaving just two Opposition rebels opposed (they want more time to scrutinise and potentially add amendments). As things stand, this would

mean the government would just lose the vote, but the atmosphere is febrile, and Johnson’s promise to pull the deal altogether if the government loses the second vote might have

concentrated minds….