What if the taliban mean what they say? | thearticle

Anyone who knows anything about Afghanistan will tell you unequivocally that the Taliban are bad people. You can’t trust them to keep their word. Their history shows that they are a bunch of

vengeful, bloodthirsty murderers. They are misogynists, indulging in the most heinous crimes against women and girls. They are liars. Verify, verify and verify are the watchwords in any

dealings with them. All the things we think we know about the Taliban are bad and maybe they really are. This affects how we think about them, in that we are loath to put ourselves in their

shoes. As has been pointed out by other contributors, one of the most important tools in winning any war is to know your enemy. In this article I try, however crudely and probably

inaccurately, to analyse the Taliban’s strategic thinking which may serve to broaden thinking about the Taliban. However difficult it may be, I ask you to try and put yourself in the shoes

of Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme commander of the Taliban. Among the most important decisions he faces is: what strategy should now be adopted to ensure the Taliban’s grip on power is

secure? I suggest that you would have broadly two options. The first strategy is that of engendering fear. This was how the Taliban ruled prior to the Allied invasion in 2001. Unfortunately,

this did not end well, at least in the short term, for the Taliban. However, the situation today is very different. The likelihood of a second allied invasion is almost vanishingly small,

principally due to the jaw-dropping incompetence and self-centredness of the “imbecilic” (Tony Blair’s word) PresidentBiden. Without US leadership no war against the Taliban could succeed

and both the will of the US and the trust of its allies are lacking. Not much likelihood then of a repeat of what happened in 2001, but there is likely to be some risk of allied retaliation,

such as high-level bombing in response to some atrocity or another. There is a chance that this might escalate into a three-month bombing campaign, similar to Nato’s action against Serbia,

which brought that country to its knees in 1999. But the likelihood is small. Strategy 1 therefore appears to be the right choice and that is what politicians, experts, journalists,

think-tanks, NGOs and all the armchair generals are predicting. But any good leader asks themselves what are the key elements that need to be in place for their strategy to succeed. One

important, perhaps the most important, element is that Biden, or a Biden clone, remains in power. It is not too much of a stretch to conclude that Biden, almost single-handedly, enabled the

Taliban and was the cause of the present debacle. As a result, his reputation and that of America has plummeted. Serious questions are being asked about his very competence to be

Commander-in-Chief and leader of the Free World. The damage done by Biden’s ineptitude and the dishonourable way he has sought to exonerate himself have left a “bad taste” in the mouths of

the US electorate and more broadly across the West. The odds of him being re-elected in 2024 are lengthening. Given a choice between Biden and the Republican candidate, perhaps the

unpredictable Trump, the Taliban wants and needs it to be the appeaser, Biden. Indeed, Islamists everywhere must be praying it will be Biden. So, the question is: what can the Taliban do

that will bolster Biden’s and the US reputation and significantly improve his chances of re-election? Enter strategy 2. The Taliban attempted to assuage the concerns about its takeover of

Afghanistan at a press conference in Kabul. Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the group, took questions from journalists on several issues including women’s rights; the future of the press

in Afghanistan; reprisals and whether the country would once again become a base for international terrorists. He said that the Taliban respected women’s rights as far as they extend

“within the fabric of sharia”. He said there would be no discrimination against women, but of course within the framework of sharia. Further the Taliban is committed to a “free and

independent media” providing it does not challenge Islamic or national values. Regarding terrorism, Mr Mujahid said: “I would like to assure the international community, including the United

States, that nobody will be harmed in Afghanistan. I would like to assure our neighbours and regional countries, we are not going to allow our territory to be used against anybody, any

country in the world.” Lastly, referencing the reports of Taliban soldiers carrying out house to house inspections and hunting down collaborators, Mujahid said: “I would like to reassure all

the compatriots, whether they were translators, whether they had military activities or whether they have been civilians, all of them have been pardoned.” Commentators, journalists,

politicians, Afghans and experts have been quick to question the veracity of Mr Mujahid’s comments. But what if? What if the new Taliban is, in fact, a reformed Taliban and governs in line

with the sentiments expressed by Mr Mujahid? More importantly, they need not actually reform. They require their enemies to perceive them as being reformed and doing their best to implement

the changes required. After all, the conditionality surrounding his responses to questions gives the Taliban leadership plenty of wiggle room. What if it allows all the collaborators and

their families to leave peacefully? Maybe it’s not a bad idea to get all the anti-Taliban journalists, teachers, clerics and intellectuals out of the country, with the Western coalition

bearing the cost and responsibility for them. Those remaining will be more subservient/sympathetic to the Taliban regime and less likely to publicise any human rights abuses to outsiders.

Also, their removal will make intelligence gathering much more difficult for the coalition and thereby make it easier to hide criminal behaviour from view. Don’t be surprised if they allow

the August 31 evacuation deadline set by Biden to be extended. What if the Taliban appear to apply a less extreme version of sharia to the female population? What if it allows girls to

attend schools to be taught with Taliban learning materials? What if non-attributable invitations appear on social media suggesting that wannabe jihadists will be rewarded with brides (sex

slaves) when they come to Afghanistan to join jihad. My point is that the Taliban do not have to implement all the reforms in full, only appear to try and implement them so that the free

world perceives that they are making progress towards a more civilised and humane future, in keeping with and sympathetic to the culture in their part of the world. Afghanistan would be

perceived to be on the right path_._ No one would be happier that President Biden. He would be tempted to broadcast, far and wide, that his decision to leave Afghanistan has been proved to

be right. He would surely be tempted to say “I TOLD YOU SO”. I don’t think he could resist the temptation. The implications, unfortunately, are serious. Such an outcome would be mightily

advantageous to the Taliban in two main ways. First, it would make good at least some of Biden’s catastrophic reputation and thereby increase his chances of being re-elected for a second

term — an outcome that devout Islamists everywhere must be praying for. Second, it relieves the pressure on policymakers in the State Department and friendly foreign/defence ministries. They

don’t have to come up with proportional and effective responses to any infractions of human rights by the Taliban, since any such contraventions will be nuanced by the Taliban’s retelling

of the story. On the contrary, they will find reasons to channel increasing amounts of aid money to support the perceived progress that is being made. It is to the benefit of such

functionaries, wanting an easier life, to let sleeping dogs lie. This now gives the Taliban perfect cover to implement its real agenda “under the radar” and a timescale of years to enact the

sharia-friendly policies fundamental to its very existence. It need not be in a hurry because it knows Western democracies will never last the pace. If, as they hope, all remains calm and

relatively peaceful on the surface of Afghan society, they will have all the time in the world. Of course, it may be that all the experts and the politicians are right and that the Taliban

will revert to type quickly and entrench its reputation as the enemy of free societies. Sanctions and isolationist policies against the Taliban would then be enacted and so the Great Game

would continue for one more iteration. Doubtless the Taliban would survive with the help of Pakistan, China, Iran and Russia, but life would be tougher. As for Biden: if that were to happen,

he’s toast. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make, one that’s needed now more than ever,

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