The tories have yet to nail labour on the economy. Time to deploy boris? | thearticle

This December election already has a retro feel. John “the world is our lobster” McDonnell is promising to spend anything between £55 billion and £1.2 trillion, depending on who you trust.

Though Sajid Javid is rather looser with the purse-strings than his Scrooge-like predecessors, he — like every Conservative Chancellor — is warning that every Labour government ends by

running out of money. And as usual, the Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is the Goldilocks candidate: spend not too much and not too little, but get it just right. According to Sir John Curtice,

the psephological oracle of Delphi, the public is fairly evenly divided between those who just want to tax and spend and those who worry about the country going bust. Again, it depends which

poll you pick. The British Social Attitudes survey last year found a majority of 57 to 39 per cent for more tax and spend, while the more recent Deltapoll reports that 42 per cent are big

spenders but 49 per cent prefer the status quo or want to cut spending. Curtice thinks that the real argument is about who would spend more money wisely, with Labour and Conservative voters

split on tribal lines.  Political memories, like attention spans, are getting shorter. No voters under 30 are likely to remember the note left behind at the Treasury in 2010 by the outgoing

Chief Secretary, Liam Byrne: “I’m afraid there is no money.”  It was a just epitaph on Gordon Brown’s tenure in office and the prelude to nearly a decade of paying down debt. We keep being

told by the Tories that austerity is over, but the nation is still in hock to the tune of more than 80 per cent of GDP. Any feelgood factor now is due to historically low interest rates. It

is a question of when, not if, these rates will rise. So borrowing now to pay for better public services — let alone the state socialism that McDonnell promises — will impose a heavy burden

on the next generation. Labour has made surprisingly little of the warning by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, that the UK’s rating could be downgraded as a result of the “paralysis in

policymaking” caused by uncertainty over Brexit. Sajid Javid admitted that it was “never good for any country to be downgraded”. He ought to know, having worked in banking for 18 years,

latterly as a board member of Deutsche Bank.  Perhaps McDonnell’s failure to capitalise on the Chancellor’s discomfort can be explained. It is Labour, together with other Opposition parties

and Tory rebels, that has made Parliament the main obstacle to a Brexit deal and strung out the Article 50 process. Labour policy is now to extend Brexit uncertainty indefinitely, by trying

to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement for a third time and then holding a second referendum. So the “paralysis” that worries Moody’s is as much Labour’s fault as the Tories’. So far the

economic debate between the parties has failed to catch the public’s imagination. There has been no “aha!” moment for either side. This may be good news for  Labour, which is far less

trusted on the economy. The party will shortly unveil a “fully-costed” manifesto that promises to put the nationalisations of the Attlee and Wilson governments in the shade. If Jeremy Corbyn

can avoid disaster when he is quizzed about his arithmetic, it is just possible that Labour will get away with it. If they do, it will amount to a monumental failure of persuasion by the

Tories. For what Corbyn and McDonnell mean to impose is nothing short of socialism in one country. The danger is that the public has become wary of warnings and no longer believes in any

version of Project Fear. If Brexit is no bogeyman, why should people believe it of Labour? This is why Boris Johnson is so important to the Conservatives. He is not only their champion in

knockabout debate, but exudes optimism and offers a positive vision of a post-Brexit Britain. Yet he has so far been kept largely out of the limelight. His appearances on the stump have so

far been — to put it politely — awkward. The Tories’ Australian election guru Isaac Levido doubtless knows what he is doing, but there is a risk that he will leave it too late to deploy

their great communicator.  In 2017, the Conservative campaign relied too heavily on the popularity of the Prime Minister, Theresa May. That turned out to be skin-deep and did not survive

exposure. Boris, by contrast, is a tried and tested brand. This time the Tories’ biggest hitter is much more likely to be a big hit with voters. But that can only happen if only they see him

doing what he does best: hitting Corbyn and McDonnell not just for six, but out of sight.