Sturgeon and other separatists underestimate the strength of the union | thearticle

On a CNN talk show at the weekend, Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, confirmed that she believes Scotland will be independent in the next three to five years. The SNP leader plans to

use uncertainty created by Brexit to force a referendum, arguing, “it will be a way of protecting our place in Europe.” The UK’s ongoing struggle to leave the EU on favourable terms has

encouraged separatists to intensify their attacks on the Union. While Sturgeon talks about the likelihood of an independence referendum in Scotland, Sinn Fein and other nationalist parties

demand a border poll on Northern Ireland’s future. These campaigns worry unionists justifiably, but they also show that nationalists often underestimate the resilience of the United Kingdom

and the emotional allegiances that hold it together. In both Scotland and Northern Ireland, separatists argue that their economic interests depend on remaining closely linked to Brussels

rather than London. They claim that unionist parties are not protecting the ‘best interests’ of their regions, and are therefore out of step with voters, if they fail to recognise this case.

Even if the figures backed up this assertion, which they do not, it makes the assumption that voters stick with the Union only because it is in their financial interests. The economic case

for maintaining a strong, integrated country is unlikely to disappear, irrespective of the outcome of Brexit, but British people get more out of the United Kingdom than relative prosperity.

Their support for the Union is based on political and cultural affinities at least as much as any economic calculation. That’s a point that unionists themselves have sometimes overlooked.

Even during the Scottish independence referendum campaign, when the survival of our nation-state was at stake, the ‘no’ campaign was criticised frequently for failing to make the emotional

case for Union more powerfully. England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are clearly bound together by strong social, historical and cultural links, as well as an integrated economy. In

a paper for the think-tank Policy Exchange, the historian Arthur Aughey pointed out that, while the United Kingdom may seem like an oddity compared to other countries, it is a “remarkably

enduring constitutional arrangement”. The UK is unusual because it’s both a nation-state and a family of nations. We thoroughly enjoy our rivalries, like the Six Nations rugby that’s taking

place at the moment. Yet, we share far more than divides us, even if those allegiances are sometimes a little trickier to articulate than the romantic notions that power English, Scottish,

Welsh or Irish nationalism. Often, we express our Britishness in understated, undemonstrative ways. There aren’t many tearful ballads about our common history, the great institutions of

state, the royal family or the armed forces, but that doesn’t mean our affiliations to those things are felt less than the passions of small-country nationalism. Though, just because the

emotional ties that bind together the UK are stronger than nationalists think, it doesn’t mean that it’s not a dangerous moment for the Union. The direct challenges of an independence

referendum in Scotland or a border poll in Northern Ireland are arguably less threatening than attempts to use Brexit to dilute links between the devolved regions and London. The Irish

backstop is so controversial for unionists because it drives an economic border through the middle of the UK internal market and gives Brussels and Dublin increased control over Northern

Ireland, which was an objective of nationalists throughout negotiations. If it is enacted, it will weaken British sovereignty in Ulster and increase the Republic of Ireland’s influence,

without reference to the ‘principle of consent’. Separatists in Scotland are hopeful that they can use the Irish situation to push for separate arrangements of their own and there are

already signs that Westminster is at least preparing to devolve more powers to Holyrood, as yet another concession to nationalist aspirations. Unionists will always have one major advantage

over nationalists, because the constitutional arrangements they want to preserve are already in place. The merits of an independent Scotland or an all-Ireland state are only theoretical,

whereas we already live in a prosperous, stable, free United Kingdom, where most of us feel a strong sense of belonging. The SNP, Sinn Fein and others can continue to promote the idea that

Brexit brings their dreams of nationhood closer. Unionists will answer them best by focusing not only on the economic case for Union, but also thinking about how more people from across the

UK can be encouraged to engage fully with the political, cultural and social life of the nation.