Israel looks set for a fifth term of netanyahu — but for gantz and his fellow generals, hope springs eternal | thearticle

It is still possible to hope against hope that retired Israeli Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and his Blue and White party could still form the next Israeli government. It appears that Binyamin

(Bibi) Netanyahu is poised to return to the prime ministership; the right-wing bloc, consisting of Likud, extremist settler-backed parties and the ultra-Orthodox groupings, will form a

majority of the new Knesset (parliament). That, however, depends on whether Bibi’s Likud or Gantz’ Blue and White commands the largest number of parliamentary seats. Should Blue and White

capture as little as one seat more than Likud, Reuven (Ruby) Rivlin, Israel’s president, can ask Gantz to have the first try at forming a government. It will not, of course, be easy for

Gantz to do so. When Tzipi Livni’s Kadima party won the most seats in the 2009 elections, she was unable to form a government, in part because she could not match Bibi’s promises to the

ultra-Orthodox. Their primary concerns were then, and still are now, funding for their religious seminaries, exemptions from the army for their students, and maintaining their domination of

the chief rabbinate, the religious courts, certification of kosher restaurants and other aspects of the country’s Jewish religious life. Gantz would face the same challenge. He would have to

make the very same concessions to the ultra-Orthodox parties that Bibi would offer, and convince the rabbis who control those parties that he would not break his word—something that comes

naturally to Netanyahu. Moreover, he could suggest to them that if Netanyahu were convicted on one or more of the several charges for which the Attorney General is likely to indict him after

the election results are final, they might find the parties they control entirely excluded from a new government that would emerge as a result of a backlash against Likud. Gantz may not win

over all three of the ultra-Orthodox parties. If he fails to do so, he would need the support of Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party as well. In this case, his prospects are somewhat brighter.

Kahlon, until recently Israel’s finance minister, is primarily focused on issues that affect ordinary Israelis, particularly the skyrocketing cost of living. In particular, the cost of

housing has put owning an apartment beyond the reach of many young and less well-heeled Israelis, while numerous apartments in posher neighborhoods remain vacant much of the year, as they

are owned by overseas Jews who visit Israel only occasionally. Gantz and his colleagues, notably his leading partner, Yair Lapid, could certainly support the policies that Kahlon favors; he

therefore is likely to join a new governing coalition, since he no doubt would be offered a ministerial portfolio. Gantz, Yapid, and their colleagues, Generals Moshe (Bogie) Ya’alon and Gabi

Ashkenazi — both, like Gantz, former chiefs of staff — thus still have a chance of cobbling together a new centrist government. Whether they can will not be known until every last vote is

counted. Should they win a plurality of seats, and successfully lead a new governing coalition, the chances for a renewed opening to the Palestinians and even better relations with the Arab

states than Israel currently enjoys will markedly improve. On the other hand, two men in particular are likely to be especially unhappy with such an outcome because they both enjoy

exceedingly close relations with Netanyahu. One lives in Moscow, the other in Washington. Their names are Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.