Is it all over for boris? Not if he can pull off a london security summit | thearticle

If January was the worst month so far for this Prime Minister, February is bidding fair to be even worse. The attempt to change the subject onto Keir Starmer’s handling of the Jimmy Savile

case, an obvious “dead cat” manoeuvre, backfired. Dreadful economic figures from the Bank of England, coupled with the loss of four senior figures from Downing Street (including the

resignation of Munira Mirza, his most loyal and trusted aide), have piled on the misery for Boris Johnson. And the threat of a full-scale mutiny by Tory MPs continues to grow. The weekend

media will offer no respite. So, is it all over for the man who remains the most electorally successful Conservative politician of his generation? One (naturally anonymous) Cabinet minister

rated his chances of survival at “fifty-fifty”. That was on Thursday. The odds might be even worse by now. Yet everyone agrees that Boris is a fighter, a preternatural survivor in the bear

pit of politics. He will not go quietly and he is still dangerous. The unusually low blow of weaponising the Savile case against Starmer, one lapse of taste too many for Ms Mirza, showed

that he still believes attack is the best form of defence.  Johnson could have focused on other dubious and costly misjudgments made during Starmer’s time as DPP, such as the hounding of the

Murdoch press over phone hacking, or the abortive pursuit of a “VIP paedophile ring” under Operation Yewtree. At another time and in another place, he might even have got away with

mentioning Starmer’s apology for the failure to prosecute Savile. The fact that the Leader of the Opposition replied by accusing the PM of borrowing his attack line from “fascists” implies

that Sir Keir is sensitive on the subject. But to bring up such scurrilous stuff in Parliament was transparently an attempt at diversion by a desperate man. Like a cornered animal, he lashed

out at the man who had stalked him to his lair. Even the noblest beast turns vicious when wounded. What could still save this premiership? The Ukrainian crisis shows no sign of abatement,

but there may be a window of opportunity for last-minute diplomacy. President Putin, who has left Moscow to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing today, is unlikely to order his widely anticipated

false flag operation while the Chinese Winter Olympics last. That takes us until 20 February. Joe Biden has ordered token reinforcements to shore up NATO’s eastern flank, but so far the

policy of deterrence has been unconvincing. As many have suggested, there is an absence of statesmanship in the West. Earlier this week, Sir Richard Dearlove wrote here that the

post-pandemic world urgently needs an East-West security summit. Such a global gathering could provide a contrast to today’s sinister encounter in Beijing. Sir Richard, a former MI6 chief,

suggests that China be excluded, at least initially. But Vladimir Putin might be suspicious of what would look like an attempt to shatter his Sino-Russian axis. For him to agree to attend an

East-West summit, it would have to include Xi too. If the Chinese President, who has not left his homeland for more than two years, declined the invitation, at least Putin could not claim

that the whole thing had been rigged against him. Where better for such a summit than London? Boris Johnson was a genial and impressive host of the Glasgow climate change conference last

autumn; this is a role for which he was born. Timing, however, is all. The whole thing would have to be organised in a matter of weeks, before the weather in Eastern Europe improves

sufficiently to provide optimal conditions for a land offensive. Russian armoured forces will if possible avoid the mud — known in Russia as _rasputitsa_ — which will begin to dry up only

later in the spring. During the Second World War, campaigning on the Eastern Front was dictated by the seasons, but nobody knows whether that would still apply today. The element of surprise

has been sacrificed by Putin to wring concessions out of the West. But this gives us perhaps our only chance to avoid the bloodiest war we are likely to have seen in Europe since 1945. If

Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace can coordinate their efforts, a London security summit is surely worth a try. Some of the most important diplomatic gatherings in history were

organised at relatively short notice. The Congress of Vienna, which rearranged the map of Europe after the Napoleonic Wars, was first mooted at the Treaty of Paris in May 1814. By November,

more than 200 delegations were meeting in Vienna, where they remained until June 1815, continuing throughout Napoleon’s Hundred Days and concluding just before the Battle of Waterloo. The

present situation does not call for such a lavish or long-drawn out occasion — we do, after all, have the UN nowadays — but a week-long summit in, say, March should be possible. Putin might

not choose to attend throughout, but he would be flattered by the attention and the opportunities offered for grandstanding. For Biden, this would be the chance to redeem his failing

presidency and walk tall on the world stage in advance of the midterm elections in November. The same would apply to Emmanuel Macron, by then on the eve of a presidential election. And for

Chancellor Scholz, still something of a novice, the London summit would allow him to clarify Germany’s dangerously ambiguous position on Ukraine. A London summit is, in chess terms, a

gambit: a tactical sacrifice for strategic gain. In other words, it would not be without risk. The possibility that Boris Johnson might no longer be Prime Minister by March is very real.

Heavy Tory defeats in the May local elections won’t be averted by a triumph in foreign policy. But a London summit would turn the tables on those who say that domestic politics is preventing

the PM from doing his job. Boris Johnson has nothing to lose and everything to gain from announcing such a summit. Nobody will want to be left out. And it could save millions of lives. A

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