How unpredictable was donald trump? | thearticle

Four years ago, when Donald Trump was still only President-Elect, I made a set of predictions about how his time in the White House would pan out. It was published in _Standpoint’s _2016

Christmas issue, while Daniel Johnson was still the magazine’s Editor. Now that Trump has left office, it is time to see how accurate these predictions were. Predictions are, predictably

enough, generally wrong. Take the many predictions of the 16th-century seer known as Nostradamus. He has a fan club who manage to explain a large number of his predictions by twisting and

turning a word here and there. Or take the witches’ prediction that Macbeth has nothing to fear, not until “Birnam wood comes to Dunsinane”. This is another moot point. Did Birnam wood come

to Dunsinane? I think opinions are divided. The official view, reinforced by many theatrical productions, is that Birnam wood did indeed perform that feat. There is, however, a minority view

saying that all this was just in the imagination of the playwright. Next, I shall cast a critical eye over my own predictions. I will attempt to be objective. I am happy to grade them on a

scale of 1 to 5, namely: 5 = very good, 4 = good, 3 = reasonable, 2 = bad, 1 = very bad. Those predictions are quoted below, and a mark is attached to each one. “WILL HE BUILD A WALL ALONG

THE RIO GRANDE AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS? THAT WAS AFTER ALL, HIS FIRST CAMPAIGN PROMISE. HE WILL NOT. IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE AND IT IS NOT NEEDED ANYWAY. A MUCH CHEAPER SOLUTION IS TO SHOOT

IMMIGRANTS WHO TRY TO ENTER THE COUNTRY ILLEGALLY — AND IT IS MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE.” _The prediction is basically true. Trump managed to build only 47 miles of new wall (most of them were

only replacements for old and broken barriers). The project was too expensive. I am guilty however of exaggerating Trump’s likely treatment of illegal immigrants. I give myself a mark of 3,

reasonable._ “WILL HE REMOVE OVER TWO MILLION ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WHO HAVE A CRIMINAL RECORD? HE WILL BE LUCKY IF HE CAN REMOVE AS MANY AS 10,000.” _It is true that he failed to remove two

million immigrants, so that part of the prediction was correct. But the real figure was around 200,000, many more than the 10,000 I suggested. I give myself a mark of 3, reasonable._ “WILL

HE LOCK UP HILLARY CLINTON AS HE OFTEN THREATENED? NO, HE WILL NOT.” _This was a good prediction, but I cannot award myself a mark better than a 3 because it was fairly obvious that Trump

would not bring Hillary to court._ “WHAT WILL HE DO WITH OBAMACARE? HE MIGHT REPLACE IT WITH A CHEAPER VARIETY, BUT QUITE LIKELY HE WILL SCRAP IT.” _Trump was able to weaken Obamacare, but

unable to abolish it. I think again a mark 3 would be appropriate._ “WILL HE WITHDRAW FROM THE UN CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME? HE WILL.” _I think this prediction deserves a mark 4._ “WILL HE

BOMB RAQQA MORE INTENSIVELY? HE WILL.” _I give myself a mark 3. No more, because this was fairly obvious._ “WILL HE RENEGE ON THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL? HE WILL NOT. IT WOULD TAKE TOO MUCH

EFFORT TO UNDERSTAND ALL THE IMPLICATIONS.” _This was a serious mistake on my part. I assumed that Trump would not venture into areas he does not understand. I was wrong. I give myself a

mark of 1, the lowest mark, very bad._ “INTIMIDATION WILL START FAIRLY EARLY, WITHIN THE FIRST 100 DAYS. IT MIGHT START WITH A PARTICULARLY BITING ANTI-TRUMP ARTICLE IN ONE OF THE LIBERAL

NEWSPAPERS, SAY THE _NEW YORK TIMES_. WHAT WILL HE DO? HE WILL NOT AS YET HAVE THE POWER TO PUT THE JOURNALIST BEHIND BARS, AS TURKEY’S PRESIDENT ERDOGAN WOULD DO. HE WILL JUST DENOUNCE THE

ARTICLE AS A FOUL ATTACK ON HIM BY THE OLD AND DISCREDITED ELITE. MEANWHILE, HE WILL QUIETLY ENCOURAGE HIS FAITHFUL FOLLOWERS, THOSE WHO CHANTED ‘KILL OBAMA’ AT ONE OF HIS RALLIES, TO RID

HIM OF THAT TURBULENT JOURNALIST. THEY WILL OBLIGE. THEY WILL BEAT UP THE JOURNALIST, WHO MAY OR MAY NOT SURVIVE.” _I regard this as a very good prediction (mark 5) in spite of the fact that

no intimidation was reported in the first 100 days. The essence of this prediction was that Trump would commit criminal acts. That he would incite murder. We do not know whether this

occurred or not. What we do know is that five people died in the storming of the Capitol._ “THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY WILL ALSO BE UNDERMINED. NOMINEES TO THE SUPREME COURT WILL BE

TRUMP’S CRONIES. BUT HE WILL DO MORE. HE WILL INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTION OF JUDGES. A JUDGE DENOUNCED WILL NEVER HAVE LIFE INSURANCE APPROVED BY ANY INSURANCE COMPANY. FREEDOM OF ASSEMBLY

WILL ALSO BE THREATENED. CONSISTENT ANTI-TRUMP RALLIES WILL BE BROKEN UP BY THUGS, WHILE THE POLICE WILL LOOK THE OTHER WAY.” _I think this prediction had some truth in it. Trump often

criticised judges, in impermissible ways, whose judgment he disliked. It is also true that he encouraged extreme Right-wing groups to dominate the streets. However, I exaggerated the extent

of Trump’s influence. I also regret now that I called Trump’s nominees to the Supreme Court his “cronies”. Since the election they have demonstrated that they were unwilling to do as Trump

asked. I would give this prediction a mark 3, reasonable._ “HE WILL NOT BE INTERESTED IN STRENGTHENING NATO. HE WILL LET NATO WITHER AWAY. HE WANTS EUROPE TO BE WEAK. HE WILL SUPPORT ALL

MOVEMENTS THAT WANT TO BREAK UP THE EUROPEAN UNION.” _Trump showed his contempt for Nato by storming out of a meeting in Canada, allegedly because some world leaders mocked him. I think I

got it right (mark 4)._ “WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP UNDERMINE DEMOCRACY? HE WILL DO HIS BEST. HIS FIRST JOB WILL BE TO PURGE THE RANKS OF THE REPUBLICANS. HE WILL PARAPHRASE CESARE BORGIA’S MOTTO:

_AUT TRUMP, AUT NIHIL_. ANYONE LESS THAN TOTALLY LOYAL WILL BE PURGED. MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WILL BE IN PERMANENT FEAR OF FALLING OUT OF FAVOUR.”   _I regard this as a very good prediction

(mark 5) in spite of the fact that Trump limited himself to purging his cabinet. He did that ruthlessly and often._ “WITH THE INEVITABLE FAILURE OF HIS POLICIES, HIS POPULARITY WILL TUMBLE.

THERE WILL BE A DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE.” _As we know, there was no Democratic landslide. This was a bad prediction. A mark of 2 (bad) would be appropriate._ “TRUMP WILL LOSE BOTH THE SENATE

AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.” _Another very good prediction (mark 5)._ “IMPEACHMENT PROCEDURES WILL START IN YEAR THREE. TRUMP WILL BE IMPEACHED IN YEAR FOUR.”  _I regard this as an

inaccurate prediction because there was no reason given why impeachment should take so long. I also failed to give a reason for the impeachment. _ _I can’t award myself more than a mark 3._

In summary: I have given myself one 1, one 2, seven 3s, two 4s and three 5s, an average of 3.13, just a little above reasonable.