China, Xinjiang and Taiwan: time for the West to act?

Imagine an alternative universe in which the United Kingdom had never accepted Irish independence a century ago. In this scenario, the British Government has decided to recover Ireland by

force. Every day, scores of RAF warplanes fly over the Republic, while the British Army and the Royal Navy openly prepare to invade. The BBC announces that war is imminent.

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, about 10 per cent of the population — all Catholic nationalists — have been rounded up and incarcerated in concentration camps. There men, women and children

are brainwashed, tortured and unknown numbers are murdered. Forced sterilisation of Catholic women is carried out on a vast scale, Catholic churches are closed and the nationalist community

officially ceases to exist. This de facto genocide is conducted in secrecy and justified on grounds of security.

Does anyone suppose that if such things were taking place in the British Isles, the rest of the world would be turning a blind eye? Would the United Nations be looking on with seeming

indifference, urging non-intervention in the Anglo-Irish conflict and treating such crimes as an internal matter? Wouldn’t the entire media of the Western world and beyond be united in

condemning the British Government? Wouldn’t the United States and the European Union stand ready to intervene by force to prevent the threatened annexation of the Irish Republic and the

enslavement of its population?

All this, of course, is unthinkable in the case of Britain and Ireland today, though something not unlike it once took place some four centuries ago. But this is the reality of what is

happening right now in China. There the Republic of Taiwan, which has been independent for more than 70 years, is being threatened with invasion on a daily basis — threats that are backed by

an unprecedented show of force.

In Beijing, the state-owned Global Times stated in an editorial this week that the confrontation had “created a sense of urgency that war may be triggered at any time”. In the past month,

149 military aircraft from the mainland have flown over Taiwan, forcing the island’s air force to scramble daily. The Chinese are deliberately escalating tension in what appears to be a test

of President Joe Biden’s nerve, after the US retreat from Afghanistan.

Beijing’s military aggression has prompted Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to appeal for help. Writing in Foreign Affairs magazine, she warns: “If Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would

be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system. It would signal that in today’s global contest of values, authoritarianism has the upper hand over democracy.” She

also makes it clear that, though hugely outnumbered, the 23.5 million Taiwanese will not surrender without a fight: “If its democracy and way of life are threatened, Taiwan will do whatever

it takes to defend itself.” 

She means it — and the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion. Joseph Wu, Taipei’s Defence Minister, told Australia’s ABC this week: “If China is going to launch an attack against

Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.” China has had a bloody nose in a dispute with a heavily armed neighbour before, when it invaded Vietnam in 1979. Both sides

claimed victory after heavy losses, but Beijing was forced to retreat. In the case of Taiwan, moreover, Western intervention remains highly likely, with the most comparable scenario being

the Korean War, which also ended in stalemate. 

Ominously, the most popular film in China at the moment is a nationalist epic about Korea: The Battle of Lake Changjin. It celebrates a victory of the Communist Chinese over UN forces led by

American troops. The latter are shown being slaughtered and their depiction is described by a lone Chinese critic as “vile”. Yet this crude propaganda film broke global records at the box

office last weekend, earning more than twice as much as the new Bond, No Time to Die, or the latest Marvel movie Venom. It is as if the Chinese public were being prepared for war not only

with Taiwan but with America, too. Remember: almost five million people died in the Korean War.

Meanwhile, further gruesome details have emerged about the persecution of the Uighurs in Xinjiang. A former Chinese detective, known only as Jiang and now in hiding in Europe, revealed on

CNN that he had been ordered to torture and kill innocent civilians in one of the detention camps where some two million members of the Turkic Muslim ethnic minority are being held — up to

10 per cent of the province’s population of 25 million. Jiang testified to the brutalisation not only of the victims but the perpetrators too: “Some [officers] see this as a job, some are

just psychopaths.”

The example being made of the Uighurs, many of whom have never accepted the legitimacy of Chinese rule (which began by conquest three centuries ago), is not lost on the Taiwanese. In the

event of a mainland occupation, the treatment of Taiwanese “secessionists” (a category that could be stretched to include most of the population) would most likely resemble that of the

Uighurs. By comparison, Hong Kongers so far have been treated leniently, though that has much to do with the value of the former colony’s financial system to Beijing. Still, the crushing of

freedom and democracy in Hong Kong as the rest of the world stood by has caused mass emigration. Xi Jinping may be gambling that Taiwan will fall into his hands without military intervention

from the West. Despite its contempt for the treaty it signed guaranteeing the human and civic rights of Hong Kongers, Beijing sets great store on the fact that the UN does not recognise

Taiwan as an independent country. 

The fact that the Taiwanese know what fate awaits them under Chinese mainland rule makes it certain that they will fight to defend their homeland. This catastrophe must be avoided at all

costs. Britain has already done its part by sending HMS Queen Elizabeth, the Royal Navy’s largest and most powerful warship, with her escorts to the region. At present, she is conducting

exercises with two aircraft carriers of the United States Indo-Pacific command, USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson, as part of a fleet of 17 vessels from six countries. The presence of

this armada sends a powerful signal to Xi Jinping that he should not go beyond sabre-rattling. But the West cannot maintain such a presence indefinitely. A comprehensive, ideally diplomatic

solution to the confrontation is urgently needed.

Boris Johnson will speak mainly about domestic politics at Manchester today. What keeps the Prime Minister awake at nights, however, is China. He should follow Mrs Thatcher’s example and

summon an expert seminar to Chequers. It should not be limited to Sinologists, but include more general historians of the calibre of Niall Ferguson, Andrew Roberts and Tom Holland. We are at

a crucial juncture in world history. Boris knows that he must get his policy towards China right, or risk unimaginable consequences. Appeasement is no longer feasible. Action is required.

The only question is: what kind of action would deter China, save Taiwan and bring the world back from the brink of war?

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