Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

ABSTRACT Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none

have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated

assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or

high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide

consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going

forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution ACCESS OPTIONS Access

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Office of Oil and Gas, 2006). Google Scholar  Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors acknowledge funding provided by the ADVANCE project (FP7/2007–2013, grant agreement No. 308329)

of the European Commission. The International Energy Agency (in particular A. Bromhead, L. Cozzi, N. Selmet and G. Zazias) provided critical data support, which made the price calibration

possible in the model. P. Kolp and M. Strubegger of IIASA are also recognized for their assistance with model code development. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * International

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria David L. McCollum, Jessica Jewell, Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi * University of Tennessee, 1640

Cumberland Avenue, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA David L. McCollum * The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington DC 20433, USA Morgan Bazilian & Marianne Fay * Graz University of

Technology, Inffeldgasse, 8010 Graz, Austria Keywan Riahi Authors * David L. McCollum View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Jessica Jewell

View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Volker Krey View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar *

Morgan Bazilian View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Marianne Fay View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed 

Google Scholar * Keywan Riahi View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS D.L.M, J.J., V.K. and K.R. designed the research. J.J.

contributed data for the modelling. D.L.M. and V.K. implemented the modelling. M.F. and M.B. provided feedback on the scenarios, in particular assisting with the framing. All authors

contributed to writing the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to David L. McCollum. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary Tables 1–7, Supplementary Figures 1–7, Supplementary Discussion, Supplementary Methods and Supplementary References. (PDF

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impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions. _Nat Energy_ 1, 16077 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.77 Download citation * Received: 27 November 2015 * Accepted:

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