Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change

ABSTRACT Ecosystems are linked within landscapes by the physical and biological processes they mediate. In such connected landscapes, the response of one ecosystem to climate change could

have profound consequences for neighbouring systems. Here, we report the first quantitative predictions of interdependencies between ecosystems in response to climate change. In shallow

tropical marine ecosystems, coral reefs shelter lagoons from incoming waves, allowing seagrass meadows to thrive. Deepening water over coral reefs from sea-level rise results in larger, more

energetic waves traversing the reef into the lagoon1,2, potentially generating hostile conditions for seagrass. However, growth of coral reef such that the relative water depth is

maintained could mitigate negative effects of sea-level rise on seagrass. Parameterizing physical and biological models for Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we find negative

effects of sea-level rise on seagrass before the middle of this century given reasonable rates of reef growth. Rates of vertical carbonate accretion typical of modern reef flats (up to 3 mm

yr−1) will probably be insufficient to maintain suitable conditions for reef lagoon seagrass under moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by 2100. Accounting for

interdependencies in ecosystem responses to climate change is challenging, but failure to do so results in inaccurate predictions of habitat extent in the future. Access through your

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BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS CORAL REEFS BENEFIT FROM REDUCED LAND–SEA IMPACTS UNDER OCEAN WARMING Article Open access 09 August 2023 LOCAL HUMAN IMPACTS DISRUPT DEPTH-DEPENDENT ZONATION OF

TROPICAL REEF FISH COMMUNITIES Article Open access 25 September 2023 HERBIVORE EFFECTS INCREASE WITH LATITUDE ACROSS THE EXTENT OF A FOUNDATIONAL SEAGRASS Article 16 February 2024 REFERENCES

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funding from ARC SuperScience grant #FS100100024, University of Queensland Early Career and New Staff research grants to M.I.S. and J.X.L., Lizard Island Research Station Fellowship grant to

S.H., and University of Wollongong URC grant to S.H. The authors thank members of the Australia Sea Level Rise Partnership for helpful discussions, S. Atkinson, A. Harborne, E.V.S. Menck,

V. Harwood and R. Canto for assistance in the field and laboratory, and A. Hoggett, L. Vail and staff of Lizard Island Research Station for guidance on field sampling. AUTHOR INFORMATION

AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia Megan I. Saunders, Javier X. Leon, Christopher J. Brown, Stuart R.

Phinn, Catherine E. Lovelock, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Peter J. Mumby * Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072,

Australia Megan I. Saunders, Christopher J. Brown & Peter J. Mumby * School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072,

Australia Javier X. Leon, Chris M. Roelfsema & Stuart R. Phinn * School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia David P. Callaghan, Tom

Baldock & Aliasghar Golshani * School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia Sarah Hamylton & Colin D. Woodroffe *

The School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia Catherine E. Lovelock Authors * Megan I. Saunders View author publications You can also

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CONTRIBUTIONS M.I.S., P.J.M., S.R.P., J.X.L., O.H-G. and C.E.L. designed the study. M.I.S., C.M.R., J.X.L., C.J.B., S.H., D.P.C., T.B. and C.D.W. conducted the field work. M.I.S., J.X.L.,

C.M.R. and S.H. provided input data. M.I.S., D.P.C., A.G., T.B. and C.J.B. developed and ran the models. M.I.S. wrote the manuscript with input from all co-authors. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

Correspondence to Megan I. Saunders. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION (PDF

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response to climate change. _Nature Clim Change_ 4, 724–729 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2274 Download citation * Received: 28 April 2014 * Accepted: 19 May 2014 * Published: 22

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