Drought sensitivity of amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

ABSTRACT Feedbacks between land carbon pools and climate provide one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our predictions of global climate1,2. Estimates of the sensitivity of the

terrestrial carbon budget to climate anomalies in the tropics and the identification of the mechanisms responsible for feedback effects remain uncertain3,4. The Amazon basin stores a vast

amount of carbon5, and has experienced increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent floods and droughts over the past two decades6. Here we report seasonal and annual carbon balances

across the Amazon basin, based on carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide measurements for the anomalously dry and wet years 2010 and 2011, respectively. We find that the Amazon basin lost 0.48 ±

 0.18 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1) during the dry year but was carbon neutral (0.06 ± 0.1 Pg C yr−1) during the wet year. Taking into account carbon losses from fire by using

carbon monoxide measurements, we derived the basin net biome exchange (that is, the carbon flux between the non-burned forest and the atmosphere) revealing that during the dry year,

vegetation was carbon neutral. During the wet year, vegetation was a net carbon sink of 0.25 ± 0.14 Pg C yr−1, which is roughly consistent with the mean long-term intact-forest biomass sink

of 0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr−1 previously estimated from forest censuses7. Observations from Amazonian forest plots suggest the suppression of photosynthesis during drought as the primary cause

for the 2010 sink neutralization. Overall, our results suggest that moisture has an important role in determining the Amazonian carbon balance. If the recent trend of increasing

precipitation extremes persists6, the Amazon may become an increasing carbon source as a result of both emissions from fires and the suppression of net biome exchange by drought. Access

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SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS DECADAL INCREASES IN CARBON UPTAKE OFFSET BY RESPIRATORY LOSSES ACROSS NORTHERN PERMAFROST ECOSYSTEMS Article Open access 26 July 2024 GLOBAL INCREASE

IN BIOMASS CARBON STOCK DOMINATED BY GROWTH OF NORTHERN YOUNG FORESTS OVER PAST DECADE Article 02 October 2023 ALASKAN CARBON-CLIMATE FEEDBACKS WILL BE WEAKER THAN INFERRED FROM SHORT-TERM

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Grid_http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw (Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, CIESIN, Columbia University, 2011) Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank P. Tans and P. Bakwin,

who had the foresight to initiate a long-term high-precision greenhouse gas measurement laboratory in Sao Paulo, and D. Wickland, the NASA programme manager who initially supported this

effort. This work has been financed primarily by the UK Environmental Research Council (NERC) via the consortium grant ‘AMAZONICA’ NERC (NE/F005806/1) and also by the State of Sao Paulo

Science Foundation (FAPESP) via the ‘Carbon Tracker’ project (08/58120-3), and the EU via the 7th grant framework GEOCARBON project (grant number agreement 283080). NASA, NOAA and IPEN made

large contributions to the construction and maintenance of the GHG laboratory in Brazil. Intensive plot measurements were supported by NERC and the Moore Foundation via grants given to

RAINFOR. L.G.D., L.S.B., C.S.S.C., V.F.B. and A.M. were supported by CNPq, CAPES, Fapesp and IPEN, and O.L.P. by an ERC Advanced Grant. We thank measurement analysts and scientists at NOAA

for providing data, and the pilots who collected the air samples. Numerous people at NOAA, especially A. Crotwell, D. Guenther, C. Sweeney and K. Thoning, provided advice and technical

support for air sampling and measurements in Brazil. E. Dlugokencky provided data from Ascension Island and Ragged Point in Barbados. We also thank D. Galbraith for help with the

comprehensive forest census plot data and R. Brienen for comments. Finally, we acknowledge S. Denning for reviews of the manuscript. AUTHOR INFORMATION Author notes * L. V. Gatti, M. Gloor

and J. B. Miller: These authors contributed equally to this work. AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN)–Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear

(CNEN)–Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratory, 2242 Avenida Professor Lineu Prestes, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo CEP 05508-000, Brazil , L. V. Gatti, L. G. Domingues, L. S. Basso, A.

Martinewski, C. S. C. Correia & V. F. Borges * School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS9 2JT, UK , M. Gloor & O. L. Phillips * Global Monitoring Division,

Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA, J. B. Miller * Cooperative Institute for Research in

Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, 80309, Colorado, USA J. B. Miller * Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of

Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK , C. E. Doughty, Y. Malhi & L. O. Anderson * Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

(INPE), Rodovia Dutra, km 39, Cachoeira Paulista CEP 12630-000, Brazil , S. Freitas & R. Braz * Remote Sensing Division, INPE (National Institute for Space Research), 1758 Avenida dos

Astronautas, São José dos Campos CEP 12227-010, Brazil, L. O. Anderson * Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas/Instituto de Astronomia e Geofisica (IAG)/Universidade de Sao Paulo, 1226 Rua

do Matao, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo CEP 05508-090, Brazil, H. Rocha * Crew Building, The King’s Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JN, UK , J. Grace * School of Tropical and

Marine Biology and Centre for Terrestrial Environmental and Sustainability Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns 4870, Queensland, Australia , J. Lloyd * Imperial College London, Silwood

Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berkshire, UK , J. Lloyd Authors * L. V. Gatti View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * M. Gloor

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E. Doughty View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Y. Malhi View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google

Scholar * L. G. Domingues View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * L. S. Basso View author publications You can also search for this author

inPubMed Google Scholar * A. Martinewski View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * C. S. C. Correia View author publications You can also search

for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * V. F. Borges View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * S. Freitas View author publications You can also

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can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * H. Rocha View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * J. Grace View author publications

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publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS L.V.G., M.G., J.B.M., J.L., H.R., O.L.P., Y.M. and J.G. conceived the basin-wide measurement programme

and approach. M.G., J.B.M. and L.V.G. wrote the paper. C.E.D. and Y.M. analysed and contributed the data of the comprehensive biometric forests census plots. S.F., R.B., L.O.A., L.G.D. and

L.S.B. helped with data analysis. V.F.B., C.S.C.C. and A.M. helped with greenhouse gas concentration analysis. All co-authors commented on the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHORS

Correspondence to L. V. Gatti, M. Gloor or J. B. Miller. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests. EXTENDED DATA FIGURES AND TABLES

EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 1 AMAZON CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN 2010 AND 2011. A, Monthly Southern Hemisphere Amazon basin precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (2.5° × 2.5°)

for the Southern Hemisphere Amazon basin (accessed from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/)44 The red line with diamond data points shows the monthly mean precipitation; the black solid line is the

1981–2010 mean and its standard deviation (dashed black lines) for each month. The grey solid line is the annual mean and its standard deviation (dashed grey lines) for 1981–2010 and the

filled red circles are annual averages for 2010 and 2011. B, Precipitation anomalies in 2010 (left) and 2011 (right) calculated as the annual mean differences from the 1981–2010 averages. C,

Monthly Southern Hemisphere Amazon basin temperature from the Global Historical Climatology Network version 2 and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (0.5° × 0.5°) for the Southern

Hemisphere Amazon basin (accessed from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/)45. The red line with diamond data points shows the monthly mean temperature; the black solid line is the 1981–2010 mean and its

standard deviation (dashed black lines) for each month. The grey solid line is the annual mean and its standard deviation (dashed grey lines) for 1981–2010 and the filled red circles are

annual averages for 2010 and 2011. D, Temperature anomalies in 2010 (left) and 2011 (right) calculated as the annual mean differences from the 1981–2010 averages. EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 2 CO

CONCENTRATIONS IN 2010 AND 2011. Data are grouped into above and below 1.5 km height above ground measurements for four sites. p.p.b., parts per billion. EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 3 AIR PARCEL

PATHS TO MEASUREMENT SITES. Mean seven-day back-trajectories from measurement sites (from FLEXPART) during the 2010 dry season months and fire hotspots from ATSR-WFA, from the Data User

Element of the European Space Agency29. EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 4 FLUX UNCERTAINTY STATISTICS. A, Sensitivity of flux estimates to profile extrapolation height (months and years are abbreviated

below). Comparison of quarterly flux estimates calculated by mass balance of air column up to the top level of measurements (4.4 km a.s.l.), up to 10 km and 8 km a.s.l. during the dry and

12 km during the wet season. B, Distributions of annual net carbon flux estimates obtained with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (described above) and 68 and 95 percentile intervals of

the mean. EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 5 COMPREHENSIVE FOREST PLOT MEASUREMENT RESULTS. A, Plant carbon expenditure (NPP plus autotrophic respiration, an upper bound on gross primary production) for

14 1-hectare plots where all NPP and autotrophic respiration components are measured. Eight 1-hectare plots did not experience drought (blue line), six experienced drought, three in the dry

lowlands (red line), and three in humid lowland regions ±standard error (black line). The black dashed line is the average seasonal value for 2009 (a typical year) repeated through 2010 and

2011. The hatched bar is the mean drought period for the six drought sites, based on CWD. B, Meteorology data from drought plots. Data from Skye instruments meteorology stations from

January 2009 to December 2011 near the drought plots (black) for (top left) cumulative water deficit (millimetres per month) and (bottom left) air temperature (in °C). On the right, both

plots are the anomalies for the same variable directly to its left with negative values representing a lower than average temperature or precipitation. The hatched bar highlights the

approximate period of the 2010 drought in the region based on CWD anomaly. C, Intensive carbon balance forest census sites. EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 6 SENSITIVITY OF SITE ATMOSPHERIC CO2

CONCENTRATIONS TO SURFACE FLUXES. A, Sensitivities calculated separately for the four sites (clockwise from the lower left) TAB, RBA, SAN and ALF, and for 2010 calculated with

back-trajectory ensembles from the FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The star symbol represents the centroid of the footprint: that is, the point at which footprint

contributions are equal to the north and south, and east and west. Note that there is significant overlap of footprints for the 2010 annual mean. B, As for A, but displaying only the

tropical forest biome fraction. EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 7 GEOGRAPHICAL SUMMARY FOR SOUTH AMERICA. A, Land cover map of South America from remote sensing (MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer) obtained from http://modis-land.gsfc.nasa.gov/landcover.html (ref. 46). Black arrows represent average climatological wind speed and direction in June, July and August

(from NCEP) averaged between the surface and 600 mbar. B, Population density in South America in the year 2005 (ref. 47). EXTENDED DATA FIGURE 8 SF6 AND AMAZON BACKGROUND CONCENTRATION

CALCULATION. A, SF6 at RPB and ASC and the ‘ASC fraction’ (_f_ASC). Data shown for all Amazonian sites. B, CO2 at RPB and ASC and background values estimated based on in situ SF6

concentrations. Small diamonds (RPB and ASC) represent flask pair averages and thin lines are smooth curve fits to the data33. Filled circles (SAN, ALF, TAB and RBA) represent scalar

background values for each Amazonian site determined from the smooth curve fits to ASC and RPB and SF6 values according to equations (4) and (5). POWERPOINT SLIDES POWERPOINT SLIDE FOR FIG.

1 POWERPOINT SLIDE FOR FIG. 2 POWERPOINT SLIDE FOR FIG. 3 POWERPOINT SLIDE FOR FIG. 4 RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Gatti, L., Gloor,

M., Miller, J. _et al._ Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements. _Nature_ 506, 76–80 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12957 Download

citation * Received: 24 May 2013 * Accepted: 12 December 2013 * Published: 05 February 2014 * Issue Date: 06 February 2014 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12957 SHARE THIS ARTICLE

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