Inverse Probability | Nature


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ABSTRACT IN my letter1 of May 4, I was not defending Eddington's solution of his problem in inverse probability, but was attacking Dr. Dingle's discussion2 of his own simplified


problem: If _A_ and _D_ each speak the truth once in three times independently, and _A_ says that _D_ lies, what is the probability that _D_ speaks the truth? In his discussion Dr. Dingle


said, ” Sir Arthur's treatment effectively combines the knowledge of _D_'s moral character with that of _A_'s. But is it not clear that such combination is purely fictitious?


From our knowledge of _D_ the probability is ” from our (independent) knowledge of _A_ it is ”. The results are inconsistent because the data are independent; we are effectively defining


probability in different ways”. It should be clear from my solution of Dr. Dingle's problem that the answer is neither ” nor ”, but, ½ and nothing else. There are really no


inconsistencies, as I showed by drawing up the association table. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution


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RAZOR IN LEAST-SQUARES FITTING AND TO GUIDE ACTIONS Article Open access 19 January 2022 REFERENCES * _NATURE_, 135, 1073; 1935. Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar  * _NATURE_, 135, 451; 1935.


Article  ADS  Google Scholar  Download references AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Harvard College Observatory, Cambridge, Mass. T. E. STERNE Authors * T. E. STERNE View author


publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE STERNE, T. Inverse Probability.


_Nature_ 136, 301 (1935). https://doi.org/10.1038/136301c0 Download citation * Published: 01 September 1935 * Issue Date: 24 August 1935 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/136301c0 SHARE THIS


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