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UBS Global Wealth Management has reduced its 2025 target for the S&P 500 by 200 points to 6,400, citing tariff concerns and the “shock” of uncertain White House policies. “Recent
economic weakness and our expectation that tariffs will be at the higher end of our base case prompts us to lower our” earnings-per-share estimate for the S&P 500 this year to $265 from
$270, said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a March 27 note. “The Trump administration’s tariffs and tariff threats (as well as the DOGE-related
cuts to government spending) have sent consumer, business, and investor sentiment into a tailspin,” he wrote. It appears “policy uncertainty has driven a downtick in consumer and business
spending,” he said, adding that “it seems likely that the policy uncertainty shock will lead to further weakness in economic and corporate profit readings in the next several weeks.”
