Holidays in the valley : come snow or shine : * skiing: no one really knows whether this winter will bring abundant snowfall or continued drought, but whichever way it goes, local resorts are ready.

SPECIAL TO THE TIMES, <i> Kowalick is a regular contributor to The Times. </i> This could be the winter that Southern California skiers have been waiting for. Or the one that

will have them snapping their Rossignols in two. It all depends on whom you believe. Some experts contend that the local mountains are in for more snowfall than you can shake a ski pole at.

Others say California’s five-year-long drought will continue, leaving local slopes on the ropes. Yet one thing is for sure: Skiing in Southern California can use a lift. “The last four or

five years haven’t been anything great,” said Mark Ward, co-owner of Ski Sunrise Resort in Wrightwood. “And you wouldn’t want to have too many years like last year.” Last season might have

been a total disaster had it not been for the so-called March Miracle that dumped 11 inches of rain and snow in California over a five-week period and allowed local resorts to rally toward

the end of the season. Before March, Southern Californians were forced to travel to Lake Tahoe and other points north to get their skiing fix. “March saved our rear ends,” said Michael

Valente, public relations manager for Snow Valley Ski Resort in Running Springs. “But even with as much snow as we had, business began to fizzle out because Southern Californians were

already going to the beach and to the desert.” Will this be a watershed season for snow? Marvin Dodge, a Davis, Calif., climatologist and member of the American Meteorological Assn., says

early indications are favorable. “I’m quite optimistic that it will be the best winter of the past five years,” Dodge said. “I would say there is a 60% chance we will have significant

snowfall by Thanksgiving.” Experts say it all boils down to what effect _ El Nino _ will have on Southern California weather this winter. _ El Nino _ is a warm Pacific Ocean current that

disrupts tropical heating patterns and, consequently, affects the jet stream that moves weather patterns toward the West Coast. Experts agree that ocean temperatures are a few degrees warmer

than normal. “This will give us more evaporation and a greater potential for high precipitation,” Dodge said. However, although _ El Nino _ probably will continue for another year, its

effect on Southern California weather cannot accurately be predicted, said Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Center for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,

Colo. “An El Nino actually could produce extreme drought conditions,” Trenberth said. “The two wettest years in California record occurred during _ El Nino _ events. But also, some of the

worst extremes also have been the result of an _ El Nino_ . If you talk” with different experts, “you will get different interpretations. “It’s a little early to tell now, but it is more

likely--and this is only a guess--that it would be the kind of event that is more likely to continue the drought.” Vernon Kousky, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in

Washington, said it is simply too early to tell what will happen. “It could go either way,” he said. “We won’t have a winter forecast for California for at least another month. We don’t know

if the drought was broken by all that rain California had in March or not.” Dodge said many experts believe that a wet winter is in store but are reluctant to make predictions. Regardless,

he said, if precipitation comes, Southern California should see a significant amount by late autumn. Meanwhile, skiers remain skeptical. “We’ve been hearing that this will be the year for

the last four or five years,” said Ron Ellingsworth, vice president of Mt. Baldy Ski Resort. “Who knows what’s going to happen? We won’t believe it until we see the snow on the hill.”

Fortunately, most ski resorts can make their own snow and some have improved their snow-making capabilities this year. Snow or shine, here’s a rundown of what you’ll find at local ski

resorts, all within a couple hours’ drive from Los Angeles. BEAR MOUNTAIN _ Big Bear Lake_ Information: (714) 585-2519 Snow: (714) 585-2417 Terrain: 25% (beginner), 50% (intermediate), 25%

(expert) Elevation: 8,805 feet Vertical drop: 1,665 feet Longest run: 2 miles Number of runs: 30 Number of lifts: two quad, three triple, four double, two surface Lift prices: adults $36,

children 12 and under $19 Food and refreshments: cafeteria, pizza bar, barbecue, chalet bar, mountaintop bar and grill Lodging information: Mountain Lodging Unlimited (800) 487-3168

Packages: Learn-to-ski package includes lesson, one-day lift ticket and equipment rental for $39. Junior ski center (ages 4 to 12), with lunch, $45. Miscellaneous: Equipment rentals are $15

adults, $13 children. Separate area for snowboarding. Directions: San Bernardino Freeway to Interstate 215 to California 30 to California 18. Two miles south of Big Bear. Features: Several

changes have been made, including installation of a new quad lift originating at the base that covers a 425-foot vertical rise and accesses a new trail down the middle of the lower portion

of the mountain. The existing Gold Mine chair has been shortened to service the lower two-thirds of the mountain. The changes will result in a 60% increase in lift capacity on the lower

mountain. The Big Bear Express, which shuttles skiers to the summit in six minutes, has been expanded to accommodate 13% more passengers. Other improvements include 14 acres of new trails

and improved terrain. Bear Mountain’s 30 runs are the most among local ski resorts, and its two-mile run is the longest. MT. BALDY _ Mt. Baldy Road_ Information and snow: (714) 981-3344

Terrain: 20% (beginner), 40% (intermediate), 40% (expert) Elevation: 8,600 feet Vertical drop: 2,100 feet Longest run: 1 1/2 miles Number of runs: 25 Number of lifts: four double Lift

prices: adults $33, children 12 and under $20, adult season pass $475, children season pass $275, midweek season pass (adults only) $325 Food and refreshments: lodge, cafeteria, barbecue bar

Lodging: limited accommodations nearby Packages: Learn-to-ski package includes two-hour lesson, lift ticket and rental for $35 midweek and $45 weekends. Reservations recommended: (714)

982-0800. Weekend “Kiddie Ski School” (under 12) for $15, $20 with equipment rental. Snowboarding allowed with rentals to be arranged. Miscellaneous: equipment rental $15, two-hour ski

lessons $15 Directions: San Bernardino Freeway 10 to Mountain Avenue, north to ski area Features: With 400 skiable acres, Mt. Baldy offers more room to roam than any resort in Southern

California. Improvements this year include additional grooming equipment and expanded snow-making, bringing man-made snow to Thunder Mountain and to advanced and intermediate runs for the

first time. Also new this year is Skiing by the Hour, which allows skiers to ski part of the day and be charged only for the time they spend on the slopes. When leaving, skiers receive a

refund voucher (good toward the purchase of a future lift ticket) for the amount of the unused portion of their ticket. MT. WATERMAN _ California 2, La Canada Flintridge_ Information: (818)

440-1041 Snow: (818) 790-2002 Terrain: 20% (beginner), 40% (intermediate), 40% (expert) Elevation: 8,035 feet Vertical drop: 1,085 feet Longest run: 1 mile Number of runs: 23 Number of

lifts: three double Lift prices: Adults $30, children 12 and under $14. One child admitted free with paying adult. No weekly lift prices. Food and refreshments: Fast-food chili, hamburgers,

hot dogs and stew Lodging: None Packages: Two-hour ski school, $16. Beginner package includes lesson, lift ticket and rental for $25. Miscellaneous: Equipment rental, $15. Cross-country run

at top of mountain. Directions: Foothill Freeway to California 2, north 35 miles Features: With no snow-making capabilities, Mt. Waterman’s main attraction is its accessibility: It’s only 58

miles from L. A. City Hall. “We have the steepest, longest runs in Los Angeles, I like to say,” Director Mary Anderson said. “Our snow comes from heaven, not from hoses. It’s the greatest

snow in the world--when we get it.” Mt. Waterman operated only for about six weeks last season and didn’t open until early March. Crowds are typically light. The resort has new rental

equipment this year. MOUNTAIN HIGH EAST AND WEST _ California 2, Wrightwood_ Information: (619) 249-5477 Terrain: 25% (beginner), 50% (intermediate), 25% (expert) Elevation: 8,200 feet

Vertical drop: 1,600 feet Longest run: 1 1/2 miles Number of runs: 42 Number of lifts: two quad, three triple, six double Lift prices: Adults $35.75, children 12 and under $15. Prices

subject to change. Food and refreshments: four restaurants, two bars Lodging: Cabins available nearby. Call (619) 249-5477. Packages: Midweek student and senior discount to be arranged.

Miscellaneous: Equipment rental $17. Snowboards and snowboard boots available for $36. Night skiing 3 to 10 p.m., $26 (adults only). Directions: Interstate 15 to California 138 to California

2. Eight miles west to ski area. Features: More than 200 skiable acres and extensive snow-making ranks Mountain High among Southern California’s most popular ski areas. Two years ago,

Southern California’s first high-speed quad lift opened at Mountain High, taking skiers to the summit in less than six minutes. Mountain High usually weathers dry spells well. Last season,

the mountain opened over Thanksgiving weekend and maintained operations until stormy March. SKI SUNRISE _ California 2, Wrightwood_ Information and snow: (619) 249-6150 Terrain: 25%

(beginner), 45% (intermediate), 30% (expert) Elevation: 7,600 feet Vertical drop: 800 feet Longest run: 1 mile Number of runs: 16 Number of lifts: one quad, three surface Lift prices: Adults

$30, children 6 to 12 $15, 5 and under free, senior citizens 65 and over free, full-time students $25, season pass $350 Dining: Snack bar, cafeteria, barbecue, beer and wine bar Lodging:

Various accommodations five miles away in Wrightwood Packages: Learn-to-ski package includes lesson, lift ticket and rentals is $40 adults, $35 students, $30 children. Miscellaneous:

Equipment rentals adults $18, children $12. Ski shop. No snowboarding. Directions: Antelope Valley Freeway to California 138 to California 2 to Table Mountain Road Features: For 19 years,

Ski Sunrise has catered to beginners, families and those who want to take it slow on the slopes. Experts might not find the runs challenging. But they’re welcome to ski elsewhere, according

to co-owner Mark Ward. “You don’t go to Pebble Beach to learn to golf,” Ward said. “We want the people who come up in the station wagon with the Levis on.” That’s one reason why snowboards

are prohibited. They can be dangerous and they make beginners nervous, Ward said. Many slopes have been expanded and new grooming equipment has been purchased. SNOW SUMMIT _ East of Big Bear

Lake_ Information: (714) 866-5766 Terrain: 10% (beginner), 65% (intermediate), 25% (expert) Elevation: 8,200 feet Vertical drop: 1,200 feet Longest run: 1 1/4 miles Number of runs: 19 miles

worth Number of lifts: two quad, three triple, six double Lift prices: Adults $35.50, children 12 and under $19, senior citizens $28.50 Food and refreshments: three restaurant-bars, snack

bar Lodging: Various accommodations. Call (714) 878-3000 Packages: Learn-to-ski package, including lesson and lift ticket, $29.50. Additional $10 for rentals. Miscellaneous: Equipment

rentals adults $15.50, children $13.50. Snowboards and snowboard boots, $43. Night skiing from 3 to 10 p.m. Wednesdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays. Two runs only. New express ticket

reservation service for credit cards: (714) 851-4900 ($1.50 reservation fee). Directions: San Bernardino Freeway to Interstate 215 to California 30 to California 330 east to Big Bear.

Features: One of the most popular local resorts since 1952, Snow Summit this season has added more than 20 skiable acres, raising its total to more than 230. Last season, it was one of the

few local areas to offer adequate coverage and draw large crowds for most of the season, thanks largely to more than 200 acres devoted to intermediate runs and a superior snow-making system

that covers 100% of the terrain. “Last year was actually a good snow-making year,” Director Chris Riddle said. “Even though there was no snow, the air was cool.” This year, snow-making

capacity has been increased. Skier capacity is limited to 6,000 to keep lift lines short. SNOW VALLEY _ California 18, Running Springs_ Information: (714) 867-2751 Snow: (714) 867-5151

Terrain: 35% (beginner), 35% (intermediate), 30% (expert) Elevation: 7,900 feet Vertical drop: 1,048 feet Longest run: 1 1/4 miles Number of runs: 35 Number of lifts: five triple, eight

double Lift prices: Adults $35, children 12 and under $22, senior citizens 65 and over $22. Anyone 70 or over skis free. Five-day advance lift ticket sale $25 for adults. New half-day lift

ticket adults $22, children and senior citizens $13. Senior and child discounts to be arranged. Weekend reservations suggested. Prices subject to change. Food and refreshments:

restaurant-bar with sun deck, snack bars Lodging: Arranged with Lake Arrowhead Hilton: (800) 223-3307 Packages: Learn-to-ski package, including lift ticket, lesson and rentals, $29. Access

to beginner runs only. Miscellaneous: Equipment rental adults $14, children $10. Snowboard rental available at prices to be determined. Ski lessons $22 for three-hour group lesson, $16 for

90 minutes. Night skiing 4 to 9 p.m. Wednesdays through Sundays at $22 adults, $13 children. Ski shop and ski-school lounge. Directions: San Bernardino Freeway to Interstate 215 to

California 30 to California 18. Four miles east of Running Springs. Features: About three-fourths of Snow Valley’s 240 skiable acres are covered by man-made snow, assuring adequate coverage.

Last year, Snow Valley survived a lull in January and February before receiving eight feet of snow in March. MORE TO READ