Upbeat economists anticipate strong Q4 GDP print, reinforcing India’s growth

India’s Gross Domestic Product for the January to March quarter (or Q4FY25), which will be released today, is expected to post robust growth, with economists and analysts forecasting a

stronger showing than the previous two quarters.

Ahead of the official GDP release scheduled for 4 pm today, market watchers are anticipating an encouraging print that may well set the tone for a strong start to FY26.

JP Morgan has projected India’s Q4 GDP growth at 7.5% year-on-year (YoY), with Gross Value Added (GVA) expected to rise by 6.7%, a significant improvement from 6.2% in the preceding quarter.

Talking to Fortune India, Rumki Majumdar, economist at Deloitte India, pointed out that already released numbers, such as the IP index and the PMI, already show a resilient economy,

“All eyes are on Q4 GDP, as there are expectations that the quarter may boost overall FY25 growth. High-frequency indicators such as the IP index and PMI point to some rebound in

manufacturing, while services PMI and exports have held up well,” she said.

Majumdar also noted that there are strong economic signals coming from rural India. “Rural demand seemed robust, as indicated by the FMCG sector growth. Even foreign investments have

rebounded after a bout of outflows in late 2024. More importantly, large spending due to the Mahakumbh will also reflect in the services sector.”

As per Majumdar’s estimates, GDP growth for the quarter could land between 6.8% and 7.2%, adding, “This data will be key in assessing the depth and breadth of the ongoing recovery,

potentially setting the stage for continued momentum into FY26.”

She also stressed the role of global integration and capital flows in sustaining this momentum.

“We remain confident that India’s strengthening trade relationships, despite global supply chain uncertainties, will enhance its role in international trade and value networks. The reviving

capital flows will help boost investment in the private sector.”

While she pointed to cautious urban consumption trends, Majumdar was optimistic about domestic demand in the near term. “Domestic consumption is expected to rise, particularly as tax relief

measures support spending among middle-income households,” she added.

Yesterday, at the ongoing CII summit, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran also had struck a confident tone, noting that a confluence of positive factors, including lower energy

prices, an accommodative monetary stance, and expectations of a favourable monsoon, will help India sustain a GDP growth rate of 6.3% to 6.8% over the long term.

“India has a few silver linings,” Nageswaran said. “There will be some sectors where India did not enjoy an advantage before but may enjoy an advantage later from a tariff perspective.”