Bihar polls: lalu's politics is not outdated, he is still relevant, says social scientist shaibal gupta

Here is Shaibal Gupta, based in Patna, one of the most renowned social scientists in the country, explaining the importance of Bihar, the nature of its politics, caste equations and much

more in an interview with Parth MN: The all-important Bihar elections is heading for a climax. The build up to the elections has been intense. Political parties have left no stone unturned

with rallies and campaigns trying to cover every nook and corner of the state. Reporters across the country have flocked to Bihar, trying to gauge the direction in which the political wind

is blowing. On November 8, the results will be out and, commentators say, it is most likely to resonate across the country. HOW IS THIS ELECTION DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLIER ELECTIONS IN

BIHAR? Nitish and Lalu were never on the same side. Moreover, substantial number of the social justice system is in the rank of the NDA. Two pivotal colleagues of the social justice group,

Ram Vilas Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi, are with NDA. A dramatically new sort of political configuration has come up. We will have to see how that unfolds. On the whole, as per the reports I

have received, the first two rounds went to the grand alliance. The next two went in favour of the NDA. Fifth will be the clincher. HOW CRUCIAL IS THE CASTE FACTOR IN THIS ELECTION? Caste is

an important agenda in the context of Bihar. Historically there has not been a sub-national identity. There is either a caste identity or a national identity in Bihar. So caste has played

an imperative role. HOW IMPORTANT WAS THE MOHAN BHAGWAT COMMENT OF THE NEED TO REVISIT RESERVATION? In Bihar, state is an important institution. In a society you need three things: State,

civil society and market. Out of the three, corporate sector is not important here. Civil society is entitlement oriented. Effectively, you have a state. Therefore, entry and exit in the

state is a very important matter. That is why the Mohan Bhagwat statement is important. On the question of revisiting reservation, people from the subaltern background are not well disposed

to this agenda. That has created a problem and that has made the trajectory of the election agenda as forward-backward agenda. HOW ACUTE IS THIS CONSOLIDATION OF THE OBCS, SC AND ST? IS IT A

COMPLETELY BIPOLAR ELECTION OR WOULD THE LIKES OF OWAISI AND PAPPU YADAV PLAY A ROLE? Essentially, it is a two-way fight. There is an increasingly broadest possible social justice coalition

getting consolidated behind the Grand Alliance. It is also true that whatever votes Pappu, Mulayam, Owaisi get, they will do so at the cost of Grand Alliance. Whether they will

substantially do so, is anybody’s guess. THERE IS A VERTICAL SPLIT IN BIHAR TODAY, LIKE THERE WAS IN THE 90S DURING THE MANDAL COMMISSION. HOW WOULD YOU COMPARE THE TWO SITUATIONS? There is

no comparison. In the 90s, there was a broadest possible social justice coalition. It supported the Mandal. Today, the social justice constituency is fragmented. Large section is still with

old social justice parties. But substantial section of the social justice party has switched over to the BJP. Though, they are not the true repository of the social justice movement in the

country. MANY SAY THE RANVIR SENA WAS A REACTION TO MANDAL COMMISSION. IS THERE ANY NEED TO ALARMED GIVEN THE VERTICAL SPLIT IN BIHAR? Ranvir Sena was not primarily a reaction to Mandal

Commission. It was formed due to rural unrest. It resulted primarily because the agricultural productivity had been going down and the input cost was increasing. One way to control cost was

to target the agricultural labourer. Over and above, Mandal changed the social paradigm in the context of Bihar. The forward caste got marginalised and backward were at the help. That also

contributed to the discord of Ranvir Sena. YOU HAD WRITTEN THAT WHEN LOWER CASTE LEADERS COME TOGETHER, IT IS CALLED CASTE POLITICS. BUT WHEN THE UPPER CASTE PARTIES FORM AN ALLIANCE, IT IS

NOT. CAN YOU ELABORATE?  Even during Nehru’s period, social base of congress was Brahmin, Dalit and Muslim. Nobody talked of caste configuration then. Social base of Lalu is Muslim and

Yadav, and his M-Y combination is spoken about all the time. That is my only objection.      In India, whichever political parties fight elections, they have some principal social base. BJP

has been conscience about caste as they have been co-opting caste into social engineering. IT HAS NOT EVEN BEEN A YEAR AND A HALF SINCE NITISH WAS WIPED OUT IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS.

BUT REPORTS SUGGEST HE WOULD MOST LIKELY FORM THE GOVERNMENT. WHAT CHANGED IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF? It had become clear in the beginning that Nitish was not the Prime Ministerial

candidate. Therefore, Bihar electorate did not have an option but to support Modi against Congress. Voters vote differently in the national election. It was more of an anti-congress vote

than a pro-Modi vote. Plus, Nitish was not critical enough of the Congress and he could not en-cash the anti-incumbency. He thought he would get special category status, which the congress

had promised. It was perceived he was siding with Congress. The anti-congress vote, therefore, went to Modi. IF THE GRAND ALLIANCE FORMS THE GOVERNMENT, IS THERE ANY CHANCE OF CONFLICT

WITHIN THE TWO PARTIES? IT IS A TACTICAL ALLIANCE AFTER ALL. WHAT DO NITISH AND LALU NEED TO DO FOR THE ALLIANCE TO LAST FIVE YEARS? There can be a conflict. But they will work out a Common

Minimum Program. Immediately after this election, they will start preparing for the parliamentary elections, which they will not be able to fight on their own unless there is a broadest

possible national coalition. They will have to contend with number of assembly elections as well. Their hands will be full. DO YOU THINK THERE IS CHANCE OF THE LIKES OF MAMTA AND KEJRIWAL

JOINING THE RANKS AND FORMING A GRANDER ALLIANCE? It is possible. The non-saffron forces could come together to stop the BJP and Modi juggernaut. IF NITISH BECOMES THE CHIEF MINISTER, WHAT

WOULD BE HIS PRIMARY CHALLENGE? The primary challenge will be to continue with the work he has done and consolidate. These are in the realm of, I call them ‘provided’. He has been providing

things. The critical question will be to what extent will he be able to enable the state. Will it be possible to enable the state without land reform? Will it be possible to enable the state

without strengthening the backward linkages of education as well as the forward linkages of education? For the knowledge economy, one needs to invigorate the education society. HAS NITISH’S

IMAGE TAKEN A HIT FOR TYING UP WITH LALU? Brand of Nitish Kumar is different. Whatever brand that Nitish has been able to make for himself, will definitely get affected. But Lalu’s image

must have gone high as well. Even when his wife and kids are there, he has promoted Nitish. In the process, Lalu will reinvent his image. Politically there is no difference between Nitish

and Lalu. Both are products of the same political movement. There is a cultural difference. Nitish is organised, Lalu is not. Nitish is man of governance. Lalu is man of masses. THE MEDIA

REPORTS REGARDING LALU SUGGEST HE IS A DISCREDITED LEADER. BUT THE GROUND REALITY PALPABLY INDICATES OTHERWISE. WHY DOES LALU’S CHARM STILL ENDURE DESPITE HIS TENURE BEING REFERRED AS THE

JUNGLE RAJ? When we say jungle raj, we must ask who the listener is. The poor and marginal may not consider the period jungle raj. Lalu was the leader of the broadest possible social justice

coalition in India. He should not be given credit single handedly, though. In Bihar, there has been a history of socialist movement, communist movement, naxalite movement. It is different

matter that at a critical juncture Lalu was at the centre stage. Even when he was convicted and went to jail, he got more votes than Nitish in parliamentary election. It indicates the solid

social base support he enjoys. He democratised the electoral politics of Bihar. That is why his image is not sullied by the fact he went to jail. But in the process the state structure

completely collapsed. Nitish resurrected the state. He gave authority to the state. Now this combination will be a lethal combination in the context of Bihar. AFTER 2010, THERE WERE TALKS OF

LALU’S POLITICS BEING PAST ITS PRIME. IS HIS POLITICS OUTDATED? I do not think his politics is outdated. He is still relevant. The social justice, social liberation movement is not yet

completed in Bihar. Until and unless the process gets completed, persons like Lalu will survive. The critical question is whether Lalu and Nitish will graduate the state from state centric

development to market centric development. IRRESPECTIVE OF THE RESULTS, WOULD YOU CONCEDE THAT BJP CAME TO CENTRE-STAGE IN BIHAR? THREE MAJOR PARTIES COMING TOGETHER TO STALL ONE, DID IT NOT

INCREASE THE BJP’S STATURE? It is the other way round. Because they are important, the three parties had to collaborate. BJP has not yet reached its peak in Bihar. It was expected it would

do so this time around but the indications are otherwise. Nonetheless, BJP has become an important party in Bihar. HOW WOULD THIS ELECTION RESONATE IN THE NATIONAL CONTEXT? If the BJP loses,

Narendra Modi’s authority will decrease. Critics within the party might pounce on him. The other day, Arun Shourie said _jo kursi pe baithte hai apne aap ko khuda samajhte hai._ The reform

agenda of the centre will be affected as well because of the upper house seats. More importantly, Bihar experiment, if it succeeds, might be replicated in other states.