French pm plans use of controversial article 49. 3 to force through budget – will he be toppled?

French prime minister François Bayrou says he will make use of the controversial article 49.3 which allows certain bills to pass through parliament without a vote by MPs for parts of the

2025 budget. The method – which led to the downfall of his predecessor Michel Barnier in similar circumstances – will be used twice, for both the state budget and the social security aspect

of the legislation.  The form of the budget set to be debated has already been accepted by a Joint Committee of Senators and MPs, although it has not been agreed upon by the Assemblée

nationale at large. It will be brought to the chamber today (February 3). It is less expansive than the previous budget of Michel Barnier, as it is restricted by only coming into force after

January 1, 2025 (usually budgets are passed on or before December 31). If all parts of the bill pass through the chambers (both the Assemblée nationale and Senate) the budget will come into

effect by the end of February, the government hopes. However, whether the government remains in power long enough to enact the budget depends on how opposition parties react to the prime

minister’s plans. The situation essentially mirrors that of Michel Barnier two months ago which saw opposition MPs from across the political spectrum coming together to oust him after he

attempted to use article 49.3 to pass his budget through parliament without a vote. WHY MIGHT THE MOVE TOPPLE THE PRIME MINISTER? Used dozens of times by previous prime ministers, sometimes

to save time when passing lengthy legislation, the use of article 49.3 by prime ministers serving under current president Emmanuel Macron has come under increasing scrutiny. Read more:

CHART: Which French prime minister has used controversial article 49.3 the most? This is because it has been used to bypass the lack of a majority in the chamber. Since the 2022 legislative

MP elections Mr Macron and his allies have not held 50%+ of seats in the Assemblée nationale. One risk of using the method – explained in more detail in our article on the topic – is that it

allows MPs to file a motion de censure or vote of no confidence against the government within 48 hours of the article being used. This is one of the checks and balances of parliamentary

power in the French Constitution. As the current government has the backing of less than half of the chamber – even taking into account allies in other parties – all it takes is enough

opposition MPs to join forces and vote in favour of the motion, and the prime minister and his government will be ousted. LEFT HAS MOTION PREPARED –BUT WILL SOCIALISTS BACK IT? Left-wing

parties have already announced their intention to file a motion de censure as soon as the prime minister uses article 49.3.  It will be brought forward by the far-left La France Insoumise

(LFI), and backed by other members of the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance including the Communists and Greens.  However, the Socialist Party – the second-largest bloc in the

alliance – confirmed earlier today that they will not back an initial vote of no confidence against the prime minister today. The party has not ruled out backing a vote of no confidence at

a future date, however, meaning the prime minister remains in jeopardy.  Initial agreements between the party and the current government saw them refrain from backing an earlier motion (also

brought forward by the LFI) in return for a number of pledges from Mr Bayrou, including removing proposals to axe 4,000 jobs in the education sector from the upcoming budget. Tensions have

since risen, however, over further disagreements regarding the budget and the prime minister’s comments on immigration (see below). TOPPLING OF PM HINGES ON FAR-RIGHT However, the success of

a motion of no confidence hinges on the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party, regardless of the Socialist Party’s decision. For a vote to succeed in toppling the prime minister and

government, more than half of MPs must back it, meaning the left alone does not have enough MPs even if all forces of the NFP support the motion. The current Assemblée nationale is split

roughly into thirds – the left under the NFP, the Macronist centre supported by other centrists and right-wing MPs in Les Républicains, and the far-right RN and allies. Both the left and

far-right need to back the same motion (they can both bring forward their own motions following the use of article 49.3 but these are voted on separately).  Pro-government MPs are considered

unlikely to defect and back any such motion, especially as legislative elections to bring back a new set of MPs to the chamber cannot be held until at least July – they see stability under

Mr Bayrou until at least this time as the main current priority. The successful vote of no confidence that toppled previous prime minister Michel Barnier saw all major parties of the left

back the motion de censure of the LFI, alongside the far-right.  So far, the far-right have not said whether they plan to bring forward – or back – any motions against Mr Bayrou.  A meeting

with senior members of the party will be held on Wednesday (February 5) for the party to decide the official stance of its MPs). Recent comments by the prime minister over immigration –

which inflamed the Socialist Party – were more warmly received by the far-right, with the party aiming to make immigration a central topic of 2025. Mr Bayrou said France was at risk of

‘submersion’ from migration during a recent interview, where he also laid out plans to be tougher on immigration and deportations.  Read more: Tax, retirees, work, immigration… key points

from French PM’s latest interview Once the position of the RN is known, the next steps will be clearer.  If they choose to not support the motion, the budget is likely to pass, although the

RN know they retain significant influence over the government with the knowledge they can back a vote of no confidence from the left at any time.  If the RN chooses to back a vote of no

confidence – and the Socialists also agree – the motion will almost certainly pass, throwing France into further political chaos and requiring a new government to be formed, as well as

leaving the country still without a 2025 budget.